509 FXUS63 KDDC 300635 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 ...Updated Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Strong ridge axis over western Kansas as of midnight, with strong subsidence and a clear sky. Only some convective debris clouds near the Colorado border through sunrise, with a persistence forecast keeping low temperatures in the 65-72 range Sunday morning. Sunday will remain hot, but about 2-3 degrees cooler than Saturday. All models show 850 mb temperatures, heights and thickness relaxing incrementally, particularly SE zones, where afternoon temperatures will be reduced to the 93-95 range. Still expecting upper 90s across the northern zones, closer to the core of the remaining ridge axis. Anyway you slice it, it will still be hot. Boundary layer flow will remain decidedly backed and SEly through the afternoon, gusting 20-25 mph, which will keep dewpoints elevated, well into the 60s across the eastern zones. This will act to suppress air temperatures a few degrees, but also elevate heat indices to near 100 across the eastern zones during the peak heating hours. Sky will remain clear or mostly clear Sunday night through Monday, as high pressure weakens and the atmosphere gradually cools. Despite the weakening subsidence, and SEly surface winds keeping dewpoints in the lower 60s with significant CAPE, the lack of a focusing mechanism will keep all grids dry through daylight Monday. Afternoon temperatures Monday will cool another 2-4 degrees off of Sunday's readings, ending up closer to normal in the lower 90s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 00z NAM/GFS agree high pressure will have weakened sufficiently by Monday evening, such that some limited thunderstorm activity may dribble into the western zones near the Colorado border. Assisted by weak shortwaves embedded in the weak flow aloft, any convection will be isolated, slow-moving, and probably disorganized. More significant convection may remain focused across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska Monday evening, as the global models suggest. Clearly, most of us will remain dry. Synoptic flow will remain weak and nebulous Tuesday and Wednesday, as the jet stream and westerlies remain well to the north, but high pressure doesn't build aloft either. With plenty of CAPE and minimal capping, scattered diurnal convection will likely return Tuesday and Wednesday as the NBM pop grids suggest. 00z ECMWF suggests QPF in the CWA each day. Any convection will be scattered, move slowly and erratically, and be capable of localized heavy rain with high precipitable water and slow movement/minimal steering flow. Temperatures will not stray far from normal, with highs in the lower 90s, with 00z MEX guidance a few degrees cooler in the upper 80s. Eventually, models show a strong upper high reconsolidating near NE New Mexico by Friday evening, with the ECMWF retrograding this upper high to near the Four Corners by Saturday evening. The resulting NW flow over Kansas is a preferred synoptic pattern this time of year to direct mountain convection into SW Kansas during the evening. As such, pop grids show a noticeable uptick during the Friday/Saturday time ranges. Mesoscale details will determine specifics, but areas of heavy rain are probable by the end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Excellent flying weather and VFR/SKC will continue through Sunday. Light SE winds of 7-9 kts through sunrise. After 15z Sunday, SE winds increase modestly at all airports, gusting 20-25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 95 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 65 96 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 66 97 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 65 96 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 71 97 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 P28 72 95 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner