541 
FXUS65 KFGZ 300403
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
903 PM MST Sat Jun 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Widely scattered daytime thunderstorms are forecast
through Sunday for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. 
Storm coverage becomes limited to the White Mountains area 
starting Tuesday. Other areas to have breezy southwest winds and 
near normal temperatures through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are generally decreasing in coverage and
intensity this evening, with most of the lingering activity across
Apache and Navajo counties. Expect only isolated storms the
remainder of the night with re-development of showers and
thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon along and north of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/... 
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday

A warm overnight is expected as mid and high level clouds from 
Alvin and todays decaying convection remain overhead. Little 
change in the large scale flow into northern Arizona is seen for 
Sunday, thus another round of storms is forecast for the same 
areas seeing it today. Strong outflow winds and lightning the main
threats.

Southwest flow strengthens a bit on Monday, bringing stable air
into western AZ, with warm and dry afternoons for Coconino and
Yavapai counties. Isolated storm coverage is currently forecast
for Navajo and much of Apache county. The White mountains still
looking a scattered storms Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM...By early next week, another trough over the
northwestern United States will keep much of the area warm, dry 
and breezy. The White Mtn region will likely be the only remaining
convection from about Monday - Thursday of next week. This means 
fire weather concerns will once again become the main impacts for 
next week.

Finally, by the end of next week (just after July 4th), models are 
showing what seems to be a monsoonal circulation. Will have to 
wait and see, but things look promising.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Surface winds light and variable overnight, 
becoming SW at 15 kts gusting 25 kts after 18Z west of the line 
KGCN-KPRC, and through central Navajo and Apache Counties. 
Elsewhere, winds will remain generally light SW at 5-15 kts 
through the afternoon. Surface winds will drop off to light and 
variable by 03Z Monday. 

Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
mostly east of a line from Supai through Camp Verde after 16Z, 
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible over
the higher terrain of Apache and southern Navajo Counties. 
Thunderstorm outflow gusts of 45 kts are possible. 

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widely scattered thunderstorms to return by late
Sunday morning across areas east of a line from Supai to Camp 
Verde. Outflow wind gusts to 50 mph are possible. For Monday, 
thunderstorm coverage to end across western Arizona as drier 
southwest flow strengthens. 

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwest flow aloft to expand from
west to east across northern Arizona, with thunderstorm coverage
being limited to White Mountains starting Tuesday. Afternoon 
Haines indices at 5 or 6 north of I-40 Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/DL
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit 
weather.gov/flagstaff