739 FXUS62 KFFC 300054 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 854 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 .UPDATE... Near term grids updated based on decreasing radar reflectivity trends. Also did some enhancement of grids during July 4th holiday to support DSS. Heat index forecasts even this far out will likely be critical to decisions made on road races and other activities. Heat index values Monday thru Friday around ATL metro likely to be around 100 with values around 105+ possible over middle GA. Will need to monitor these forecasts carefully for possible advisories. SNELSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Moist southerly flow will continue in the short term with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The overall weather pattern is fairly weak which is typical for this time of year. This pattern will keep temps near climatological averages with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. PWATs will also continue to increase from about 1.6 inches this afternoon to 2.0 inches especially across central GA through Sunday. Convection will be diurnally driven in nature, with the highest chances focused across central Georgia where the deepest moisture is expected. All in all, did not make many changes to the current forecast but did increase to the PoPs this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Still only expecting a few isolated severe storms each day as instability indices are weak to marginal at best. 01 LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Only minor adjustments to the long term. Still looks like minimal pops Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge strengthens across the area. The ridge flattens somewhat for the remainder of the period with increasing moisture. So general chance pops look okay for much of the area through the period. 41 Previous LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... Upper ridging will dominate the first part of the work week and as the main moisture axis sags farther south, expecting only slight chance pops for isolated showers and storms on the outskirts of the CWA for Monday and Tuesday. The ridge looks to dampen/retrograde westward Wednesday through Friday, which will allow greater moisture return and some exposure to possible enhanced forcing with any impulses tracking along still fairly weak longwave energy from the west. Have general chance pops for scattered convection daily through the second half of the week. Unfortunately, it looks like we cannot guarantee a dry Independence day with 30-40 percent chance of showers and storms. Temps will be above climo norms thru period with most areas in the mid to upper 90s, and with some increased humidity the resultant heat indices could be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria in portions of the area (especially central Georgia) for Tuesday through Friday. Please monitor future updates if this is warranted. Baker && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions expected thru the forecast with only some MVFR cigs possible in SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/TSRA dissipating this evening but should develop again after 18Z Sunday, have included TEMPO for TSRA at all forecast points. Sfc winds will remain or become light W overnight and increase to 4 to 8kts after 15Z Sunday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence in all elements SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 93 71 96 / 10 20 20 10 Atlanta 71 89 72 94 / 20 30 30 10 Blairsville 64 85 65 88 / 10 30 20 20 Cartersville 69 91 70 94 / 20 30 20 10 Columbus 72 91 74 96 / 40 40 30 20 Gainesville 70 90 71 93 / 10 20 20 10 Macon 70 92 73 97 / 40 40 30 10 Rome 69 91 70 94 / 20 30 20 10 Peachtree City 69 90 71 94 / 30 40 30 20 Vidalia 71 92 74 96 / 40 40 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...SNELSON