170 FXUS63 KTOP 291159 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 659 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A broad upper level ridge will extend from the southern high Plains northeast across the central Plains and remain nearly stationary through 12Z SUN. The center of the upper ridge will amplify a bit over eastern NE which will cause northeast winds to veer more to the east at the mid levels of the atmosphere across northeast KS. Southerly low-level flow will continue to advect rich gulf moisture northward across the Plains. Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the eastern half of the CWA where the PBL will mix to around 860 MB. Slightly deeper mixing of the PBL across the western counties will allow highs to reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s across the eastern counties of the CWA with upper 60s to lower 70s across the western counties of the CWA. Heat indicies across the CWA will range from 103 degrees up to near 110 degrees in some locations across the central and southwest counties of the CWA. The heat advisory will be in effect this afternoon from 1 PM until 8 PM this evening. Tonight, thunderstorms that may develop across northeast MO should diminish through the night as they move southwest across the state of MO. Therefore I kept POPs near zero through the early morning hours of Sunday. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 In the long-term portion of the forecast period, conditions will stay hot and humid through the weekend before a pattern change commences over the region bringing rain chances back to our forecast next week. Conditions on Sunday afternoon will not be noticeably different from how our weekend begins. An anchored mid/upper level ridge will remain in place over the central US. The ridge may weaken slightly late the day but temperatures are still expected to top out in the mid 90s with ample low level moisture keeping dewpoints in the low 70s for much of the CWA. The resulting heat index readings are again expected to exceed triple digits and range from 100 to 105 degrees. As such, we have decided to issue another Heat Advisory for areas west of a line from Hiawatha to Topeka to Emporia Sunday afternoon. The surface pattern will not change much next week as we will continue to be positioned between higher pressure southeast and lower pressure west, but the mid/upper ridge will continue to weaken and push southeast early in the week. That will allow for more an a zonal flow aloft, from which we could see several shortwave perturbations transition across the central US. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible if shortwaves do develop and move over the region as they will allow for an area of mid-level ascent which will interact with a moist and unstable airmass. The exact timing and associated convective chances triggered by those weak waves is difficult to forecast at this range. The overall message is that there could be several opportunities for rain and storms returning to the forecast, especially late in the week. Given the uncertainty in timing and strength of shortwaves, POPS generally remain fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The elevated storms in western MO will move south-southwest and will stay southeast of the KTOP and KFOE terminals this morning. A southwesterly low-level jet at 25 KTS about 1500 feet off the surface may provide for some moderate wind shear of 20 to 25 KTS at the terminals through 15Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008>011- 020>023-034>038. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Gargan