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FXUS64 KLUB 291123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR will persist over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Across North America this morning, we have an UL trough across the 
Pacific northwest, a dome of high pressure centered just to our 
north, a low on the SE side of Hudson Bay, and a tropical wave from 
the central Gulf Coast southward toward the Bay of Campeche. The 
PAC NW low will be shunted into Canada as our neighboring high is 
compressed more tightly into a NE/SW axis from Sonora to Iowa and 
the topical wave enters SERN TX by Sunday morning. By late Monday,
the wave should create a weakness in the elongated high with this
weakness apparently hanging around the area through the remainder
of the extended.

The weather should remain dry today and scattered storms should 
remain well NW and modestly SE of the area on Sunday though I 
suppose there's an off chance of perhaps a pop-up storm in the 
SERN half of the area as H7 temps cool to about 10C. Still, the 
likelihood appears too low to mention in the official forecast 
ATTM. Monday's outlook continues to look dry though the 
approaching wave may complicate things somewhat. The GFS is a lone
ranger in generating scattered activity across the region though 
this is likely being driven by a moist theta-E bias that we often 
see in that guidance. That said, the values depicted by the ECM 
are not that much lower. Normally, when these tropical waves push 
eastward, we end up under the influence of subsidence which does 
not lend itself well to storm development. However, by late 
Tuesday, things could start to change as H7 temps cool to near 8C 
and the wave is on our eastern border and we also may see activity
move in from ERN NM. From then on, it would seem that mainly 
overnight rain chances will occur with mostly dry daytime periods.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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