102 FXUS64 KBMX 291106 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 606 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. The main upper low that is fairly stationary across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana will help to pump moisture into the area. With the counter-clockwise spin of the atmosphere thanks to the upper low, moisture will stream into the area form the Gulf of Mexico. Look for the highest chances to be in the southeast, but that will spread northwest through the day and into the evening hours. Overall expected general thunderstorms, with a few gusty winds and hail at times. As we get the sounding in this morning, we will evaluate the microburst potential, but for now will leave any mention of severe out of the HWO as the widespread nature is not expected. Look for the activity to begin to dissipate once the sun sets, with most of the rain ending by 2 or 3 in the morning. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Lows will once again be in the mid 60s to low 70s. 16 .LONG TERM... /Issued at 400 AM CT/ Sunday through Saturday. The weakening upper level low over Texas slowly begins to shift southward during the day Sunday as high pressure strengthens across the region. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day as we go into the upcoming week. A gradual warming trend will also occur with the vertically stacked high pressure overhead providing subsidence. Afternoon highs will run a few degrees above normal (low to mid 90s) Monday through Saturday. Considering the increased moisture in place, heat indices could reach triple digits for at least a few hours each afternoon. These could approach heat advisory criteria depending on timing and coverage of afternoon convection. While confidence remains too low to mention in the HWO, anyone with outdoor plans in the upcoming week should be prepared for hot and humid conditions that are slightly above normal for this time of year. The overall synoptic patter remains similar through next weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. A few showers are noted in the southeast. This activity is not expected to make much progress, until later this morning. TSRAs are possible again later this morning and spread northward. Continued to mention some showers and PROB30 TSRA for all but BHM/ASN/ANB. Rain chances are lowest there in afternoon/evening. Activity is expected to diminish after 3Z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal through the weekend while minimum afternoon relative humidity values should be in the 40 to 50 percent range. Scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms will occur each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 68 90 71 92 / 30 20 40 20 20 Anniston 88 69 90 72 93 / 40 20 40 20 20 Birmingham 90 72 91 73 93 / 40 20 40 20 20 Tuscaloosa 92 72 92 73 94 / 50 30 40 20 20 Calera 89 69 89 72 92 / 50 30 40 20 20 Auburn 87 71 88 73 92 / 60 40 40 20 20 Montgomery 91 72 91 73 94 / 60 50 40 20 20 Troy 91 70 90 72 92 / 70 40 40 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$