473 
FXUS64 KMEG 290851
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
351 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A weak upper level low that brought heavy rain to East Arkansas 
yesterday has shifted to the Southwest, now bringing rain to 
Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana. Conditions are dry across 
the Midsouth under mostly clear skies. Those up early this morning
will have a chance to view the International Space Station for 
about 4 minutes around 4:59am in the Memphis area reaching a max 
height of 62 degrees overhead and traveling from the West- 
Southwest toward North Northeast. 

We will likely see a cumulus field develop by midday today, as 
temperatures warm into the upper 80s, but only isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms are expected. The highest chance will be 
Southwest of Memphis in the Delta area. Most of the Midsouth will 
remain dry today. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees with 
heat indices in the middle 90s. We will see a weak ridge build in 
from the West this afternoon into early next week resulting in a 
gradual warming trend. The ridge should remain in place through 
midweek but is not expected to strengthen. As a result, high 
temperatures should climb into the low 90s by Sunday or Monday and
remain in the low 90s through Midweek. Moisture levels will 
remain elevated resulting in Heat Indices between 98 and 101 
degrees Sunday through Midweek. Overnight lows should be in the 
low to mid 70s. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are 
possible, but widespread rain or organized thunderstorms are not 
expected. 

Late Wednesday into Thursday the ridge should shift over the 
Appalachians. As a result, we should see slightly cooler 
temperatures and maybe a higher chance of rain for the remainder
of the work week into next weekend. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Generally dry weather is expected across the Mid-South through
midday Saturday, but isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon. A VCSH remark was included at MEM
and TUP. Otherwise, expect light southeast winds and a Cu field
around 4000 ft. Any convection that develops should dissipate
after sunset. There is a low potential for some patchy fog/stratus
tonight, mainly in areas that received rainfall today. Will
continue to monitor trends.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$