739 FXUS63 KFGF 290253 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 953 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Continue to watch convection over eastern MT. Storm motion is mostly to the northeast rather than east. The HRRR, which has a decent handle on the current placement, brings only convective remanents to the Devils Lake Basin by tomorrow morning. Other CAMs runs bring more substational storms into our far west by 11Z, but are not seeming to be handling current activity very well. At this point, will continue to keep us dry through 12Z with some 30 POPs in the Devils Lake Basin after. Will continue to watch how the morning activity affects the setup for tomorrow. For current update, made only a few minor tweaks to cloud cover, but no major changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Nice day across the area again, with humidity. Dew points have climbed into the lower 60s for the most part. It was another day where cloud cover lingered most of the day after morning convection out west. This limited surface heating again, so we were a little too high with highs today. This makes two days in a row of that. This will play into the forecast for tonight and Saturday as well. Biggest question tonight is the potential for thunderstorms forming out west, and whether they will hold together as they reach our western FA toward Saturday morning. Some models show this potential, while more models do not. The current SPC day one severe weather outlook still mentions the possibility of some thunderstorms holding together as they reach the Devils Lake region. We already had this potential mentioned in the forecast, so will leave as is. If these storms reach the Devils Lake region Saturday morning, they will leave a bunch of clouds around again, as well as some morning precipitation. This would likely inhibit heating again, like the past 2 days. With less heat, despite the increasing humidity, heat indices would be lower than anticipated. For the uncertainty associated with this round of convection, will hold off on issuing any heat advisory products today. Think later shifts will have a better idea on what happens with tonight's convection. Same story goes for potential Saturday convection. Morning cloud debris could play into that as well. Most of the day should be capped with warm mid level temperatures. However, by late afternoon, or more likely during the evening, storms should break out over the northern FA and spread southeast. These storms would be severe with large hail and damaging winds. SPC Day 2 outlook mentioned the possibility of seeing even greater than a slight risk with the Saturday morning issuance, although they agreed there is still a lot of uncertainty. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Storms could bow Saturday night as they progress east-southeast into Minnesota. Sunday will be slightly cooler with lingering showers in the wake of a cold front exiting the region. However...some scattered showers or storms may linger in the southeast corner of the warning area with afternoon heating. After a quiet Monday...the pattern will remain unsettled as a series of upper level disturbances cross the area bringing daily chances for showers or isolated storms. Temperatures are expected to remain more seasonal through the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 VFR conditions at all TAF sites currently. There is the possibility of some convection coming in later tonight/tomorrow morning, but not confident enough at this point in it actually making it into our area to even include VCTS. A bit more confident in some lower ceilings moving into KDVL area tomorrow morning so have MVFR conditions. Kept other TAF sites VFR for now as consensus is not as good further east. Winds will pick up out of the southeast and some gusts above 20 kts will be possible by tomorrow afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins AVIATION...JR