631 FXUS61 KRLX 280649 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 249 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid with isolated daytime storms again Friday. Higher chances for afternoon and evening storms Saturday into Sunday. Typical summertime weather next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Friday... Almost a repeat of yesterday, only slightly warmer for today. Temperatures will have the potential to reach 90 degrees today for a lot of places, excluding the mountains of course, who get to dance to the lower 80's and the highest peaks will dance to the 70's. There is also a chance for isolated areas to get above 90 degrees depending on cloud coverage. During daytime heating there is a possibility for diurnal convection once again although with the lack of upper level flow and shear, the almost 4000 J/kg of CAPE will be sort of wasted on just general summertime thunderstorms. Not looking at anything severe although one can never rule them out completely. With the lack of strong flow these potential storms would move very slowly and possibly cause isolated water issues near poor drainage areas. Outside that, with PWATS only slightly over an inch and high flash flood guidance, not looking for any other hydro issues. This sunny day will feel hot and very humid with dewpoints in the low 70's. If we are lucky enough to avoid storms then it will feel even hotter outside with some areas in the Ohio Valley just a few degrees away from the 100 degree heat index mark. Expect clearing during the overnight with temperatures in the upper 60's. Valley fog once again has potential to develop especially in areas that may have received any rainfall from possible storms today. Another potential 90 degree day in store for the area on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday... Warm and humid weather will continue on Saturday with a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will then push into the area Saturday night, gradually pushing southward Sunday. This will enhance the chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 AM Friday... Warm and humid weather will continue for next week, with most of the convection in the afternoon and evening hours. Toward the end of the work week there are some differences between models, lending to less confidence in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 AM Friday... For this forecast period, other than the formation of valley fog which will impact VIS for a small 2 to 3 hour window in the early morning, VFR will be in charge. VIS will temporarily drop down to IFR for all terminals excluding BKW. Winds will be mainly light and variable with a predominant southwesterly direction in the afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will allow for daytime heating to initiate convection in the late afternoon. storms will most likely be isolated with little chances of impacting most terminals. However, an isolated storm causing restrictions cannot be ruled out completely in the late afternoon, especially for terminals near the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and timing for early morning may vary slightly. TAF amendments for thunderstorms Friday afternoon would most likely be needed in and near the mountains, if at all. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/28/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M L L M L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M M L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in afternoon and evening storms Saturday into the next week, and in early morning valley fog where storms occur the afternoon and evening before. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JZ