189 FXUS63 KFGF 280304 AAB AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 GOES-16 satellite imagery is beginning to show pockets of low clouds and patchy fog developing across the southern Red River Valley and Minnesota lakes country, particularly for locations where dew points have risen into the mid to upper 60s. Expect those areas, roughly along and south of a line from Bemidji to Valley City (including Fargo) to experience at least patchy fog overnight but confidence is low regarding the coverage and duration of fog. Fog development is more uncertain further north but cannot be completely ruled out. UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The latest radar imagery shows showers exiting eastward from Hubbard and Wadena counties. Mid to upper clouds will also progress eastward out of the region overnight, yielding clear skies, light winds, and quiet weather for much of the evening. Latest high resolution model guidance is showing potential for fog development in the central to southern RRV and parts of northwest MN overnight and early Friday morning. This makes sense given high potential for saturation as these sites have dew points in the mid to upper 60s, enhanced by earlier rain today. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The afternoon round of showers and thunderstorms looked better earlier. Now it looks much weaker. Think most of the activity will fall apart or move east by late afternoon, leaving the evening and overnight periods dry. Cloud cover and the rain have played havoc with the high temperature forecast today, especially along and south of highway 2. The clearing or decreasing clouds will slowly work in tonight. Wind speeds also should decrease after dark. With the clearing skies and light winds, may have to watch for some fog tonight. Best bet for that may be across southeast ND into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, which picked up the recent light rain. Did not mention the fog in the forecast at this point, as confidence is low. The next batch of showers and storms is expected to track into eastern Montana around midnight, then into western North Dakota by late night. Think this activity will end as it reaches central North Dakota. This will leave Friday dry across the FA. Therefore heat and humidity will be the main forecast challenge on Friday. Like today, this will greatly depend on how much convective debris cloud cover lingers over the FA Friday morning. If it quickly goes away, it should be much warmer than today. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Friday night still has some questions in regard to potential shower and thunderstorm development. Some models keep all activity west of the FA, and some show something possibly moving into the Devils Lake region. Kept a low chance in the Devils Lake region for now, with the better chances probably coming on Saturday. Hot and humid conditions will start the extended period with as thermal ridge axis centered across ND. Southerly flow will again drag moisture north over the area with dewpoints in the 60s and possibly into the low 70s. The attendant surface system will produce showers and thunderstorms in an increasingly unstable airmass...and fairly vigorous energy aloft. By Sunday afternoon storms will be confined to the extreme southern valley as the cold front pushes instability southward. Otherwise... will be drier as surface high pressure settles over the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will see more chances for showers and thunderstorms as the pattern remains unsettled. Temperatures will be near...to just above normal...to end the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, except for where fog develops overnight. Late tonight and into the early morning hours, fog is likely to develop in the central to southern valley and portions of northwest MN. This will include FAR and BJI but cannot rule out development at other TAF sites as well. Winds will be light and variable overnight under mostly clear skies, becoming easterly Friday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BP SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins AVIATION...BP