706 FXUS64 KLUB 280200 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 900 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .UPDATE... Minor update to expand slight chance PoPs a little further east into the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains. Outflow from convection that originated in New Mexico has now pushed into our far northwest zones. In addition to providing gusty northwesterly winds, the outflow was attempting to generate isolated weak convection, though strong capping was limiting the shower/storm development. Also, a more robust batch of convection northwest of Melrose, NM, may try and make a run at our northwestern counties over the next 1-2 hours. Beyond expanding PoPs, no other chances were made to the ongoing forecasts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ AVIATION... VFR and southerly breezes will prevail this TAF period. Convection stretching from the northwest Texas Panhandle into northeast New Mexico early this evening should fade well before threatening the terminals, leaving only mid-high debris clouds to traverse the South Plains region. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ DISCUSSION... Upper level ridging from Baja California to the Central Plains will keep things on the quiet side across the forecast area through the weekend. The axis of the upper ridge is far enough west to likely keep precipitation out of the forecast area. The possible exception is this evening where there is a small chance that storms that form on the high terrain of New Mexico will just make it into the far northwestern corner of the forecast area before dissipating. In addition, a modest increase in thicknesses suggests a slight warmup for the weekend favoring highs in the mid to upper 90s rather than the lower to middle 90s of the last couple days. There continues to be agreement in breaking down the ridge early next week, although there is disagreement on the details. Regardless, the trend toward a slight decrease in temperatures and the return of slight chance of thunderstorms remains on track for next week. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23/99