826 FXUS61 KRLX 271856 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid with isolated daytime storms through Friday. Higher chances for afternoon and evening storms Saturday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Despite the meager amounts of layer moisture, a cluster of storms has fired up to the west of the area thanks to an upper level wave, and likely hitting the convective temperature. The instability is plentiful, however, so the vertical motion is making the most out the limited moisture in the column. The flow aloft has slowed to a crawl over recent days, so the overall storm motion has slowed respectively, but some evaporative cooling within the storm has allowed for some gusts in the history. But, also due to the slow motion, prolonged downpours may bring about some water issues. The activity should wane in the evening hours, as should any that might form diurnally over the mountains over the next few hours. Expect clearing during the overnight, and valley fog to develop late tonight. Temperatures will likely stay in the upper 60s, and back into the 90 degree vicinity Friday with isolated to storms popping up diurnally again. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 249 PM Thursday... A little better change for diurnal convection this weekend with proximity to amplifying trof across the northeastern CONUS, otherwise it will remain warm humid. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 PM Thursday... Area remains in generally the same pattern early to mid week with mainly diurnal convection focused more across northern counties. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 PM Thursday... Some convective activity will attempt to work its way into the Ohio River terminals over the next 6 hours from southern Ohio. Whether they will last that long to reach PKB, or less likely HTS, remains to be seen. Otherwise, a scattered cumulus field is in play with heating through this evening, and isolated chances for showers or storms elsewhere. EKN may get some of this activity over in the mountains, but rolling with TSRA in prevailing. Tonight, expecting clearing from any of the TSRA activity and cumulus field, and expect fog to develop in the valleys after 06Z. Fog that develops will dissipate with sunrise after 12Z or so, and return to another cumulus field by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for the thunderstorms activity to the west moving towards the Ohio River and medium tonight for the fog timing. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TSRA added in AMD for PKB. Fog timing could need adjustment. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in afternoon and evening storms Friday into the next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/30 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26