392 FXUS61 KCLE 270814 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 414 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid weather pattern will continue through the weekend with temperatures slightly above average. The ridge of high pressure to our south will strengthen Friday into the weekend. There will be a series of storm complexes moving on the periphery of the ridge on a northwest flow out of the Upper Lakes and into the local area on and off through the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along an instability axis stretching from west to east across the northwest portion of our local area as well as a weak impulse over northern Indiana. High-res models and guidance has not picked up on this convection very well this morning and going forward with the forecast, there is low confidence on how this convection will play out the rest of the morning and through today. We do like the overall trend with some of the high-res guidance showing this convection decreasing through the morning hours and eventually redeveloping with the daytime heating across northeast Ohio. This redevelopment would mainly be along and east of I-71. Near term models indicate this potential for scattered convection redeveloping by early to mid afternoon and falling apart again by sunset. With that said, high temperatures will be tricky today given the incoming high cloudiness from the overnight convection. But the thinking will be that this high cloudiness will be thin enough to allow for temperatures to warm back into the middle and upper 80s away from the lake. Areas near the lakeshore and within a few miles of the lake may see another weak lake breeze redevelop which would keep temperatures just a tad cooler near the lakeshore. Tonight should be fairly quiet with convection decreasing after sunset. We will have the potential more widely scattered showers and storms to redevelop Friday afternoon, mainly across north central and northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Friday than today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The short term will feature near to above normal temperatures with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Shortwave energy moving through the northwest flow aloft will shift east of the area on Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may remain as a surface boundary settles south into NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. Moderate instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of ML CAPE will develop by Saturday afternoon and expect to see scattered thunderstorms develop along the remnant boundary. Upper level trough will swing south across the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday night. The trough has trended eastward with time so have tempered the cooling expected behind the front by a couple degrees. Better chances for thunderstorms will be along the instability gradient which will remain in the area on Sunday now, shifting south with time. The boundary appears to set up initially from a Sandusky to Canton line. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridge expands eastward over the area on Monday. Northwest flow aloft will allow for activity rounding the ridge to bring chances of showers and thunderstorms again during the first part of the week. We will have to watch for a developing cap as the airmass warms but for now will keep at least a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will remain warm in the 80s and may hit 90 at times, especially in NW Ohio. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions through the next 24 to 30 hours with no significant or impactful aviation concerns. Mostly clear to fair skies will be the rule of thumb with a light south to southwest wind around 5 knots. CLE and ERI may have a light lake breeze move through this afternoon and shift the winds to a northwest direction up to 10 knots briefly. Otherwise quiet weather is expected for the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Friday through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions expected to continue into next week with winds of 15 knots or less. The main concern for boaters will be the chance for thunderstorms that may move south across the lake through Saturday night. A frontal boundary will finally settle south of the lake on Sunday bringing a break in thunderstorm potential. Thunderstorm chances go up again by late afternoon Monday and remain into mid-week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...KEC