137 FXUS62 KTAE 270231 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .UPDATE... The forecast remains mostly unchanged except for portions of southeast Alabama where PoPs were increased to account for the MCS moving south through eastern Alabama. This will continue to weaken as it approaches the CWA. && .PREV DISCUSSION [709 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... With the area under deep-layer ridging, we expect any convection that does get going in the late afternoon to be dissipated with an hour or two after sunset. Although coverage will be isolated, a strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows will be above normal, mainly in the mid 70s with lower 70s from Dothan to Albany and points north and around 80 degrees at the coast. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure will be over the Southeast. Northerly low level flow will become easterly tomorrow afternoon. With northerly winds instability will be relatively low tomorrow and showers and thunderstorms will be fairly isolated and mainly confined along the sea breeze. On Friday the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in eastern portions of the region as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes farther west due to easterly flow in the lower levels. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure will be over the Southeast. Low level flow will be southerly this weekend then more westerly early next week. A wet pattern will return this weekend with POPs of 40 to 70 percent on Saturday and 30 to 40 percent on Sunday. Early next week POPs will be lower around 20 to 30 percent. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s this weekend and upper 90s early next week. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds. .MARINE... A wet pattern will be in place this weekend. Light to moderate northerly winds will become easterly tomorrow then southerly by Saturday. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet. .FIRE WEATHER... Other than some high dispersions across the inland Florida panhandle on Thursday afternoon, there are no hazardous fire weather conditions expected. .HYDROLOGY... Local rivers are below action stage and steady. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected this week. The stronger storms with heavier downpours may produce localized flooding especially ponding on roadways and flooding of low lying areas. Less than one inch of rain if forecast over the next three days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 95 71 92 71 / 10 30 10 40 20 Panama City 78 90 75 89 75 / 10 40 20 30 20 Dothan 73 94 71 93 71 / 30 20 10 20 30 Albany 73 95 72 93 72 / 30 20 10 20 20 Valdosta 75 94 70 91 70 / 10 30 10 50 20 Cross City 74 93 71 90 72 / 0 20 20 60 40 Apalachicola 78 90 75 87 75 / 10 30 30 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Nguyen/Prieto NEAR TERM...Wool SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...DVD MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...McD