761 
FXUS65 KPIH 260932
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
332 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Current water vapor imagery
shows an upper level low just off the Oregon and Washington
coasts with southwest flow over Idaho. Expect breezy conditions
mainly each afternoon, today through Saturday. There is a chance 
of isolated thunderstorms mainly this afternoon into the early 
evening. Outflow winds of around 30 to 45 mph can be expected. 
Afternoon thunderstorm chances becomes much less Thursday through 
Saturday, though there is a weak chance over the mountains, 
particularly for the Central mountains. Look for temperatures 
around normal to around 5 degrees below normal through the period.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday...Models show an upper level
low lifting east northeast Sunday into Monday. The GFS model 
currently shows quite a bit more precipitation than the ECMWF 
model Sunday afternoon into Monday over southeast Idaho. For 
Tuesday both models continue to show an overall trough just west 
of Idaho keeping our area in a overall moist southwest flow. For 
Tuesday, expect a chance of afternoon, mainly mountain 
thunderstorms. Look for continued breezy afternoon winds through 
the period. Temperatures will be around 1 to 4 degrees below 
normal through the period. Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover this morning from overnight convection will 
dry up by mid-day and allow warming to once again trigger some 
TS/SHRA for the afternoon and overnight. Approaching low pressure 
will keep southwest airflow aloft, supporting the surface wind and 
enhancing the gustiness during the afternoon. Every airdrome is 
under threat of VCTS level, with probability of TS at 20 to 30 
percent. CIGs at all airdromes are mid-level or higher, with a round 
this morning and again in the early evening. Messick

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Approaching low will increase the thunderstorm 
threat compared to Monday, with pretty much all areas having that 
possibility this afternoon and evening, with a focus on northern 
areas. Expect moderate wind on ridges and in the Snake River plain, 
with today being likely the warmest day of the next seven. The low 
crosses to the north of the forecast area on Thu night, so a cooling 
trend is still expected to start Thu and continue Fri. The extended 
forecast is looking a little wetter and cooler than previous 
thinking, but nothing appears to be a lock yet on what will happen 
after the Thu/Fri low and warming during the weekend. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$