780 FXUS61 KBTV 252305 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will rapidly come to an end this afternoon as more summer type weather will move into the the North Country through the middle of the week. Warm and humid temperatures develop Wednesday morning and we'll see daily chances for showers with embedded thunderstorms through the end of the week. A better threat for more organized showers and thunderstorms arrives by next Saturday with the arrival of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 702 PM EDT Tuesday...With clearing skies behind the occulded front exiting across NH, enough surface-based instability has developed to allow for isold -SHRA across Rutland county at 23Z. Added a slight chance of thunder across Rutland/Windsor next hour or so, though would anticipate a general weakening trend east of the Greens where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s. Other than minor adjustments to PoPs, anticipate patchy dense fog overnight under mainly clear skies. Overnight lows will range from 55 to 62F. On Wednesday we should see the triumphant return of humidity. Dewpoints will creep up into the upper 50s to low 60s and we'll see a shortwave trough bring showers with some embedded thunderstorms across the region. Expect generally weakly forced but fairly unstable conditions to be present during the afternoon hours with quite a bit of dry air aloft. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will move through generally in the afternoon. The precip will likely focused across two different areas. The first be for the northern Champlain Valley where a few storms will initiate based on the lake breeze and the second will be further west where modest instability will develop just ahead of the actual front in the Saint Lawernce valley. Its certainly possible for a few stronger/isolated severe cells to be capable of stronger downdrafts and hail. High temperatures to range in the lower to mid 80s with lows behind the front in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...A brief break in active weather looks to take place during the majority of the daylight hours Thursday as one shortwave trough exits east of the region early morning and we await another dropping southward across the Canadian border later in the afternoon and evening. Based on the current time of arrival of the best forcing, areal coverage of any convective activity will be limited to mainly northern Vermont where I'll continue to mention the chance for showers and thunderstorms through midnight. Thereafter any activity will wane with quieter conditions expected leading into early Friday morning. Progged 925mb temps near +20C again will lead to highs Thursday in the low/mid 80s area-wide, and lows Thursday night will be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Unsettled is the word to describe the pattern for the weekend into early next week. In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough exiting early Friday morning, weak upper level ridging develops over the region for Friday morning but yet another shortwave enters the region on northwest flow for the afternoon. Overall the atmosphere is lacking moisture so not expecting more than scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Temps will once again be warm in the low/mid 80s. Looking towards the weekend, medium-range guidance continues to be in general agreement showing a closed upper-level low dropping down from near Hudson Bay to northern New England Sunday and off the coastal waters by Monday. The best forcing doesn't arrive until Saturday afternoon so backed off precip chances for the morning, and additionally for the afternoon the best chances are across northern areas where a low threat for thunderstorms exists as well. Saturday night the cold core low (near -20C at 500mb) drops through southern Quebec and over the BTV CWA Sunday supporting fairly widespread showers developing and cooler temperatures with highs Sunday back into the 60s and 70s. Finally the system exits east of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday with high pressure returning for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Expect a mix of flight conditions through the afternoon with steady improvement through the rest of the afternoon. Clearing skies will develop this evening and expect VFR to prevail from late this afternoon through the rest of the period except for some IFR fog at SLK/MPV briefly overnight tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Deal