958 
FXUS65 KBOI 251516
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
916 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave moving across the ID/OR border this
morning has spawned a few showers and thunderstorms in the Idaho
Central Mountains. The surface is quite dry, so it is likely most
or all of these showers are just virga, however, a there has been
lightning activity in Boise and Southern Valley counties this 
morning. The forecast has been updated mainly to highlight to
potential for more thunderstorms this morning in these areas. More
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, with hi-res
models showing more activity southward than GFS/ECMWF/NAM models.
Otherwise, the forecast looks on track this morning.  

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms this morning
will increase in coverage through late this evening. Surface
winds: west/northwest around 10 kts, with gusts to 30 kts near
thunderstorms. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: Southwest 10-20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...A weak wave in southwesterly
flow aloft has brought sprinkles or scattered light rain showers
to southwestern Idaho and Malheur County during the night according
to radar.  These may survive until sunrise.  Models develop 
significant instability this afternoon and evening across Baker
County and the west central Idaho mountains, and SPC notes that
strong thunderstorms may develop in east-central Idaho close to
our CWA.  Coverage looks limited but we boosted intensity to 
include gusty winds and small hail.  Even greater instability is
indicated Wednesday afternoon in the same general areas so we
have gusty winds and hail in the forecast for Wednesday. Thursday 
still has significant instability there, but Friday looks cooler
and more stable.  Pacific upper low will move onshore western 
Oregon Wednesday and remain there through the weekend as it sends 
short wave troughs into our CWA in southwest flow aloft.  Most 
showers and thunderstorms will be in our northern areas.  Warmer
today in eastern Oregon and through Wednesday in western Idaho, 
then cooler Thursday and Friday in all areas, but especially in 
Oregon closest to the upper low.  Finally, Wednesday afternoon 
looks quite windy in eastern Oregon, with southwest winds 20-30
mph expected in Harney and Malheur Counties.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...A trough progresses 
northward over the region Friday night, spreading scattered showers 
and thunderstorms across the northern fringes of the CWA. Once this 
system moves out, model solutions show some differences over the 
location of low pressure that remains. The GFS pushes this energy 
out quickly, while the ECMWF depicts another trough deepening over 
the PacNW through the weekend. Despite model differences, PoPs were 
trended heavily toward the NBM which maintains dry conditions 
through Tuesday. As high pressure builds across the Southwest, 
temperatures will gradually rise to normal by Sunday and continue to 
increase through the period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....AL