660 FXUS64 KMEG 251107 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 607 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to for dense fog advisory. && .DISCUSSION... Surface observations showing several northern locations with reducing visibility to a quarter of a mile or less. Dense fog will be a hazard through about 9 am when enough warming/lifting should occur to improve conditions. A dense fog advisory has been issued. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/ DISCUSSION... Quieter conditions outside this hour compared to this time yesterday. A few patches of cirrus were observed overhead as well as either calm or light southwest winds. Temperatures ranged from the mid 60s in the east to the mid 70s west. A couple locations in the north and east were reporting reduced visibility from fog. For today and tonight...the main storm track will shift north to the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours leaving generally dry conditions for the Midsouth...though a stray shower or storm could form this afternoon or tonight over the south and west. Temperatures will warm some with respect to yesterday's cool readings. Highs will top out in the mid and upper 80s...with afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Midlevel clouds will increase tonight with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Wednesday through Sunday...models are in good agreement with the overall pattern becoming much more summer-like. That is... boundary layer winds of 10kts or less...upper level winds less than 25kts...scattered diurnal convection...and lastly temperatures hovering close to normal. In fact the trigger for the daily storms will be a developing weakness between the Bermuda High in the east and an upper level high across the western Sierra Madre of Mexico. The channel of moisture that will be tapped can already be seen along the Texas and northeast Mexico Coasts. Models have the weak midlevel low centered across northern Arkansas by Thursday morning...but it will likely meander closer to the Midsouth on Friday before slowly drifting southwestward this weekend. So best rain chances will mainly be in the afternoon and early evening hours with Thursday through Saturday looking the wettest. Due to the lack of shear for organization storms will be pulsy. A localized strong wind gust can't be ruled out with any storm collapse...but the greatest hazard will be lightning. Fitting...since this is lightning safety awareness week across the country. The Weather Prediction Center has rainfall amounts for the next five days roughly from a half to an inch and half...so believe by the end of the weekend most midsoutherners will have picked up some welcomed rainfall. Temperatures each day will see little variation...with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 70F. On the plus side afternoon dewpoints near 70F will keep heat indices below 100F. Early next week...upper high pressure in the west will build into the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley...forcing the weak midlevel low to drift southwest to Texas. This should allow rain coverage to slowly diminish over our area. One would expect high temperatures to creep back up into the 90's...but models show the warmest of temperatures surging into the Upper Plains and Midwest. So kept readings just below normal for late June. JAB && .AVIATION... 06z TAFs Mainly VFR conds over the next 24 hours. Winds light to nearly calm overnight at MKL and TUP...where light fog may result in brief MVFR VSBYs. A stray shower or thunderstorm may form during the afternoon hours, but confidence remains too low to add to TAF at this time. South winds 3-7 kts through the entire period. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Clay-Greene- Mississippi. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Dunklin- Pemiscot. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton TN- Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-Tipton- Weakley. && $$