118 FXUS64 KMEG 250303 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 .UPDATE... Relatively tranquil weather across the Midsouth this evening. KPAH radar showed showers along a secondary front moving from southern IL into western/central KY. These showers appeared unlikely to develop westward along the front sufficiently to affect the Midsouth. This front will likely wash out not far from its late evening position. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ UPDATE... Updated to include 00z aviation discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ DISCUSSION... The radar is clear across the Mid-South this afternoon, much to our delight after several days of evening MCS activity. We look to be in for a bit of a pattern change once the mid-latitude cyclone approaching the Great Lakes moves east of the area. We've seen drier air filter into the Mid-South today under westerly low- level flow with dewpoints largely ranging from 68-70F. Temperatures are also a bit cooler, keeping heat indices below 90F as of 2 PM. We still may see a few showers late this afternoon and evening, mainly north of a Jonesboro-Lexington line, but we're not expecting anything severe and convection will remain largely disorganized. Slight chance PoPs were included through 03z to account for this potential. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated overnight with temperatures dropping into the mid 60s to near 70F overnight with precipitable water falling to around 1 inch. The synoptic pattern through much of the week will be highlighted by flat ridging aloft as the westerlies lift well to our north across the Great Lakes. This will provide more of a typical early summer air mass across the region. Low-level moisture will rebound with dewpoints back in the 70s and PWAT back to near 1.5" by tomorrow afternoon. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible in some areas as a subtle wave approaches from the west, but the absence of a substantial forcing mechanism limits PoPs to around 40%. Any convection that develops should dissipate after sunset, although later regeneration isn't completely out of the question. The subtropical ridge is progged to build from northern Mexico into the Central Plains beginning midweek, with the Bermuda High taking form as well. Guidance is in pretty good agreement with the development of a cut-off cyclone between the two ridges. The general consensus is that this low will meander across the region through the weekend, keeping mid-level heights slightly below climatology and providing an impetus for diurnal convection each day. Again, given the scattered nature of this convection, PoPs are generally 20- 30% each day and any cells that develop aren't expected to persist too late into the evening. Thus, the forecast for the overnight periods are generally dry. The NAM develops a strong cyclonic reflection cut-off low from the mid-levels all the way down to the surface. It's QPF looks to be a bit overdone given this anomalous behavior so it wasn't weighed heavily. In general, expect high temperatures in the upper 80s with overnight lows near 70F. Not much change is expected through the weekend, so a persistence forecast is the way to go. MJ && .AVIATION... 00z TAFs Dry conditions are expected through the TAF period with a zonal pattern setting up across CONUS this week. There's a slight chance for isolated showers or storms around JBR and MKL, but confidence isn't great, so we've kept them dry for now. Mostly VFR conditions are expected with some brief MVFR conditions expected at MKL and TUP due to light fog. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming light from the S/SW by the morning hours. KRF && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$