646 FXUS64 KTSA 242351 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 651 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions and light winds are expected for all sites through early morning. MVFR ceilings could develop for KMLC near or after sunrise as moisture returns to the area, along with a chance for some thunderstorms. There is a low chance for storms for the other terminals Tuesday morning but it's not high enough to include in the TAF at this issuance. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ DISCUSSION... Main forecast concern today is the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly tomorrow night and into Wednesday, especially across parts of far northeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. Seasonally dry air persists across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, leading to below normal afternoon temperatures and another night with below normal low temperatures tonight. The cool, dry air will be short lived, as southerly winds return late tonight, along with more moist air. The moisture return will spur a low chance of thunderstorms across southern parts of the area after midnight tonight that may continue after sunrise tomorrow across a larger part of the forecast area. The big concern is the potential for a complex to develop to the north of the area tomorrow night and push southeastward into the area as a fast moving disturbance moves through northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Substantial instability is likely to return to the area as moisture increases through day, which will aid in allowing any complex that develops to sustain itself as it approaches. The main change to the inherited forecast has been to increase POPs largely from 06Z to 18Z Wednesday to account for this potential. Some threat of severe weather would exist if this occurs, mainly in the form of damaging wind. From the mid to latter part of this work week into next weekend, more seasonal weather is expected, as upper level ridging finally builds into the south central United States. Seasonally warm and humid conditions will prevail with isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms in the eastern half of the forecast area. The afternoons with the greatest coverage will be in response to an expected weakness in the southern portion of the ridge that should develop toward the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 87 70 89 / 0 20 30 20 FSM 68 87 69 89 / 10 30 20 50 MLC 69 85 68 87 / 20 20 20 30 BVO 64 87 68 89 / 0 10 30 20 FYV 64 83 67 85 / 0 30 30 40 BYV 61 87 66 87 / 0 30 30 50 MKO 67 86 68 87 / 10 30 20 30 MIO 63 86 67 87 / 0 10 30 20 F10 68 86 69 87 / 10 20 20 20 HHW 71 82 67 85 / 30 30 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....06 CORFIDI