145 FXUS63 KJKL 240555 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019 Did a quick update to fine tune the PoPs, QPF, and fog through the rest of the night. The bulk of the showers and any lingering thunderstorm over the Cumberland Valley will die out before making much progress east with limited chances for the rest of the area into dawn. Also added in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1108 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The first round of showers and storms has diminished and is exiting the state. However, another round of showers and storms is approaching the Cumberland Basin region. Keeping thunder in the forecast since lightning continues to be prominent, especially in the incoming storms in south-central Kentucky. The main threats for this round will be heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning. This line is expected to diminish as it progresses over eastern Kentucky tonight, but with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg still in the south, some gusty winds will continue to be possible. Updated the HWO to better match trends and also updated PoPs to reflect current radar trends as well. A new ZFP was also sent. Current temperatures across our area range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Updates have been sent to the web and to NDFD. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The line of showers and storms that affected west-central Kentucky earlier this evening has progressed further east and is now located over Sandy Hook down through London. Although storms were expected to decrease as the line moved east because of limited shear, the line has persisted so far this evening. DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg in east-central Kentucky have most likely aided in this. Furthermore, the London ASOS reported a wind gust of 43 knots in the past hour. At this point, expecting the showers and storms to continue to persist through the far east for the next few hours, with the main threats gusty winds and heavy rain. However, CAPE and shear are less in this area compared to earlier values in the west. Therefore, the line should begin to decrease somewhat, especially with the loss of daytime heating. Will continue to monitor this evening and update as needed. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 642 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms has entered south- central Kentucky early this evening. A wind gust of 33 knots was reported at Monticello and downed trees have also been reported in this area in the past half hour. The HRRR has not handled the development of this line very well; however, it is expected to gradually weaken as it progresses further eastward due to limited shear and decreasing instability. Have updated PoPs to better account for this. Also monitoring a second round of showers and thunderstorms in western Kentucky. Although, it will remain to be seen if eastern Kentucky can recover from this first round enough to maintain any thunderstorm chances later this evening into tonight. A new ZFP was sent. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 A warm front lifting north across the Commonwealth has brought the return of muggy summertime conditions to eastern Kentucky, with surface dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. This has primed the local airmass to support a surface-based CAPE gradient with values of 1.5-3 kJ/kg. These higher values across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions will support continuation of a line of storms currently progressing eastward west of the I-65 corridor. Local shear values however remain anemic, so this line and any additional development downstream will remain disorganized and be rather pulsy in nature. Nonetheless, could see a few briefly robust updrafts capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. This threat will deteriorate eastward into the Big Sandy region and far southeast Kentucky as instability drops off and distance from an upper impulse, moving through the lower Ohio Valley, increases. Convection will simmer down in intensity later this evening with the best chance for lingering showers being nearer to the Ohio River. Not banking on widespread fog development at this point given persistent low-mid level cloud cover, but could very well see some in eastern river valleys as decoupling occurs later this evening/tonight. Will have to monitor clearing trends in terms of fog potential, especially in areas that receive rain. Increasing southwest flow will take hold to begin the week with eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of a nearly stacked low near the western Great Lakes. This will support 0-6 km bulk shear values of near 40 knots into the afternoon, suggesting genuine storm organization given lingering clouds do not inhibit instability too strongly. Nonetheless, height falls downstream of the western Great Lakes larger scale wave and close proximity of the right entrance region of an upper jet will promote plenty of forcing for ascent along/ahead of a surface trough/front. Any hail that develops should be less than dime size or so given relatively high freezing levels, with the likely greater hazard being damaging wind gusts as storms congeal in a linear fashion. Flooding concerns will be lowered by storm motions of 45-50 mph, but will have to watch for training through the afternoon. Drier air will slowly filter in Monday night behind the departing system as stubborn clouds keep temperatures seasonably mild. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 The period is expected to begin with an upper level low over the Great Lakes moving into Ontario and a 500 mb trough axis extending to the south moving east of the region early in the period with westerly somewhat zonal flow from the Plains to the eastern Conus. Heights should rise during the day on Tuesday in the wake of this system as a ridge builds into the Southeast Conus. At the surface, a surface boundary should dissipate near the region Tue to Tuesday night with ridging building over the Southern Appalachians. Another weak shortwave trough should approach the TN and Lower OH Valley area Tue night with the wave passing south of KY and then dissipating over the Southeast while another northern stream wave will move through the Great Lakes leaving the region generally split between the two with sfc high pressure dominating. Locally, height rises are anticipated again from Wed night into Thu as ridging builds over Southern Rockies and Southern Plains and extends into the MS Valley and eventually north through the Plains. Ridging should also build over and remain near Bermuda and into portions of the Southeast. A weakness between the ridges over the Southeast to MS Valley region should persist into the weekend, while a trough moves into the Maritimes and the Northeast. Deeper moisture should return north starting on Thu and linger into the weekend. Surface high pressure should remain in place across the Appalachians into the weekend, though a cold front will drop south of the Great Lakes associated with the trough moving into the Maritimes and Northeast. This boundary may reach the area to end the weekend. Chances for convection will linger into early in the period, but should diminish during the day on Tuesday. Dry weather should prevail from late Tuesday into Thursday night. As moisture increases, daytime heating will lead to isolated convection mainly across the south and southeast for Friday. Chances will return areawide with the trough passing into the Northeast this weekend and a boundary beginning to approach from the north with chances peaking on Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain near normal for early Summer with the warmest days from Thu to Sat with upper 80s common. Overnight lows will range in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019 Scattered convection will continue to wane through the rest of the night with little impact expected at any of the TAF sites. Valley fog is also expected for places that see some thinning or clearing of the mid level clouds. At this point expect the TAF site to avoid any visibility restrictions from fog. Another concern this night will be LLWS in the western/northern parts of the area - so have included this in the SME and SYM sites. Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms is then expected to arrive from west to east Monday afternoon. Winds will be light and variable into mid morning before they increase to around 10 knots with gusts to 20 kts likely in the afternoon from the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GREIF