143 FXUS64 KMEG 240228 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 928 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... Evening update. The main convective line of storms has pushed off to the east in the past hour or so. The focus now shifts to a newer area of convection to our southwest. Latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows an MCS lifting northeast across the ArkLaMiss region. New surface-based storms have begun to fire up over northeast Mississippi. There is a thin sliver of northeast Mississippi that is still pretty unstable with latest mesonanalysis data showing 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and no cap. Combined with the LLJ, a few strong to severe storms will be possible over the next couple of hours or so. Elsewhere, the severe threat looks quite limited due to earlier convection. Expect mainly light to moderate rainfall through the overnight hours with scattered thunderstorms. About another 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is possible across the southern half of the forecast area. Went ahead and bumped up POPs in the short term. The HWO will be adjusted to reflect strong and possibly a severe storm over northeast Mississippi. AC3 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ UPDATE... Updated 00z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite and regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a Mesoscale Convective System moving over portions of Arkansas, Southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the line extend from the Missouri Bootheel back into East Central Arkansas. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 90s where rain free conditions are still occurring, and 70s where showers and thunderstorms have already occurred this afternoon. Short term convective trends are the primary concern in this afternoon's forecast issuance. The aforementioned line of showers and thunderstorms with a cold pool will continue to push across portions of the Mid-South into this evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear values approaching 35 kts will support a potential for damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat. Hail is not as much of a concern as wind as freezing levels remain quite high. Precipitable water values around 2 inches will also support localized heavy rainfall, especially with training thunderstorms. Models indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Mid-South this week with another shortwave trough moving across the area on Tuesday and a warm, moist, and unstable airmass remaining in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Overall shear is expected to remain weak with pulse type thunderstorms being the most probable convective mode in a high CAPE, low shear environment. In this scenario, the best shower and thunderstorm chances would typically occur during the afternoon- early/mid evening hours. Overall temperatures this week will remain nearly similar over the next 7 days with highs in the 80s to approaching 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. CJC && .AVIATION... /00z TAFs/ A line of storms is currently moving across the Mid-South and should be out of the area before midnight tonight. Gusty winds from the outflow of this line have been the main threat with gusts reaching 30kts. Additional storms are possible overnight but should move out of the area early morning. Confidence of timing and extent for this additional rainfall is low. Lower clouds are expected to persist through Monday evening. Gusts will diminish by Monday afternoon with dry weather as rainfall moves eastward. SGW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$