043 FXUS63 KICT 240029 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 729 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Forecast Headline: Flash Flood Watch That Had Been In Effect For Nearly All Areas Until 1 AM CDT Tonight Is Being Cancelled. Tonight: The greatest change was to cancel the Flash Flood Watch that had been in effect for nearly all areas until 1 AM CDT. A pronounced upper-deck shortwave that is positioned over Southwestern Nebraska & Northwest KS this afternoon will scoot E this evening along the Nebraska/KS border this eve & should reach the Nebraska/IA border late tonight. The wave would then be forced to lift NE early Mon morning as it encounters a STRONG upper-deck ridge punching from about WV to Hudson Bay. This would push the attendant cold front, that this afternoon curves from the IA/Nebraska border thru South- Central KS to West TX, E/SE the rest of the afternoon & evening. The front should exit Southeast KS by ~6 PM & with much drier air spreading across KS, the chances for additional heavy rains have ended. The PoPs have been lowered considerably to 15-25% with the slightly higher PoPs assigned to Southeast KS. Mon-Wed Night: There'll be nice weather to start the work-week as the upper-deck shortwave continues to lift NE across Southern Ontario that would allow a slowly-amplifying upper-deck ridge to spread across the Northern & Central Plains. There is a chance that a few thunderstorms will pop up late Tue afternoon & evening as a subtle mid-level shortwave ventures E/SE across Nebraska. It'll get warmer & increasingly humid Tue & Wed as southerly flow returns to KS. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 The upper-deck ridge will really amplify Fri & Sat & be anchored over all of the Great Plains. This would allow more-than-ample time for us to dry out from the tremendous rainfall that occurred yesterday & last night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Main aviation concerns remain an isolated severe storm or two continuing this evening mainly across central KS. SHRA/TSRA has impacted KRSL and may impact KSLN over the next couple hours. Aside from TSRA activity, VRF conditions should prevail over the TAF period at all sites. Clouds should clear overnight and winds will remain light and out of the northwest and will transition to more westerly by the end of the period. KCNU may occasionally flirt with MVFR this evening into early Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 59 82 64 89 / 10 10 0 10 Hutchinson 57 83 64 90 / 10 10 0 10 Newton 57 81 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 ElDorado 57 80 63 88 / 10 10 0 10 Winfield-KWLD 60 82 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 Russell 53 84 63 91 / 30 10 0 10 Great Bend 54 83 63 91 / 20 10 0 10 Salina 56 83 65 91 / 20 10 0 10 McPherson 56 82 64 90 / 10 10 0 10 Coffeyville 62 82 64 88 / 20 10 0 10 Chanute 60 80 63 88 / 20 10 0 10 Iola 60 80 63 88 / 20 10 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 61 81 63 88 / 20 10 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...KMB