206 FXUS63 KMPX 232048 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 348 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Showers continue across the area this afternoon along a weak boundary bisecting the state of Minnesota from south to north. Instability is still weak over the region so little to no lightning has developed, but is still expected to increase to a few hundred J/kg this evening as temperatures warm a few more degrees and lapse rates become a little steeper aloft. Thunderstorms that do develop should remain fairly isolated to scattered and weak given the limited instability, but a pocket of clearing along the MN/IA border could boost instability values just enough for a stronger storm or two given bulk shear values of 30-40 kts. Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to become more widespread tonight as better forcing aloft arrives from a shortwave lifting north into the upper midwest. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to spread northwest through the overnight hours from southwest Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. PW values are on the order of 1.6-1.7" so some locally heavy rain could be possible overnight, with the HREF probability-matched QPF highlighting pockets of up to 2" from southwest Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro. This activity will move out of the area during the morning, with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop tomorrow afternoon as the shortwave passes overhead and an area of low pressure develops over northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Precipitation will be more widespread out ahead of the low across eastern Minnesota and west- central Wisconsin, but at least isolated activity looks possible areawide. The threat for strong/severe storms is one to watch given the surface low in the vicinity and strong shortwave aloft, but the best parameters look to set up just east of the area into southeastern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. This threat area could shift more to the west, however, if the system slows somewhat allowing the warm sector to linger longer and clouds clear out enough for more instability to build. This activity should diminish after sunset, with a dry day shaping up for Tuesday. One last day of below-normal temperatures is expected Monday, with widespread cloud cover and precipitation limiting highs to the mid to upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Most ensemble members are in very good agreement with the overall pattern Tuesday through Friday, and Saturday shows decent agreement. It really is only as next weekend unfolds that there is a lot of uncertainty. For now, warm/hot weather is on the way, along with muggy dew points reaching the 70 mark late in the week over much of our area. Essentially, after the current short wave departs later Monday, a fast moving short wave arrives Tuesday. It mostly affects northern MN into WI, but it could clip a bit of our area northeast of the metro and into west central WI Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, heights begin to rise Tuesday with wnw upper flow moving in along with much warmer temperatures. We will be in wnw upper flow for a couple days after that, with the possibility of an MCS or two, with the next chance Wednesday night and Thursday. Deterministic models, especially the FV3, show another short wave or two being ejected from the upper low in the Pacific northwest and trekking across the northern plains Wednesday night and another one late Thursday. With the surface ridge moving across our area on Wednesday, return flow will bring abundant moisture Wednesday night as seen in theta-e profiles, precipitable water and a number of other parameters. As an example, precipitable water is in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range Wednesday night and Thursday. Once the short waves move through Wednesday night and Thursday. the upper ridge to our west builds well northward, into northern Manitoba and even Nunavut on Friday. Meanwhile the large upper low over the Pacific northwest moves into Canada with troughing still back into the northwest. Again, most ensemble members are in decent agreement on this. Any short wave ejecting from the trough and remaining intact will track well north of our area Friday and Saturday. Therefore precip chances on Friday are less than 10 percent in MN, and just 15-25% in west central WI to allow for the slight chance that short waves might start diving southeast across badgerland downstream of the upper ridge. This means that the humid conditions that arrive Wednesday night will not really be going anywhere, and it will stay quite muggy through next weekend. There is some hint of greater storm chances in a week as some members show potential for the upper flow to go more zonal next Sunday while the upper ridge to our north takes on a wsw-ene orientation. Howewer, other members do not show it happening quite as quickly, if at all, so it will not be surprising if this does not happen next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Expect spotty on and off showers to continue this afternoon, except at RNH/EAU where precipitation coverage will be more widespread. A more widespread area of precipitation will move up from the southwest tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. Ceilings aren't expected to budge much this afternoon, with MVFR/low-VFR conditions expected with the exception of RNH/EAU, where IFR ceilings may hold on through the evening. Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR tonight as the rain moves through, with a few periods of IFR possible during the heaviest downpours. Light and generally N/NE winds this afternoon become NW this evening, with speeds increasing through tomorrow morning. KMSP...Low-MVFR ceilings have been stubborn to break so far this afternoon, but expect to see an improvement to VFR eventually this afternoon. Precipitation this afternoon will be hit or miss, so continued the VCSH mention. More widespread showers and possibly a few instances of thunder are expected after midnight and continue through mid- morning. isolated thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is too low to include a mention at this point. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue...VFR. Winds W 10G20 kts. Wed...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts. Thu... MVFR/tsra possible. Winds S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ETA LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...ETA