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FXUS64 KLUB 231936
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Impressive upper level trough, currently over 
eastern CO, will swing through the CWA today. The associated 
Pacific cold front, that began its southward progression through 
the FA early this morning, has stalled across the southern Rolling
Plains with the dryline just through the Rolling Plains. The 
front will be the focus for convective initiation today with areas
east of the dryline favored due to the availability of rich 
moisture, warm temperatures, CAPEs of 1500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg and 
Shear values near 40 kts. While convection appears likely, there 
is a chance that the front will push into SJTs/OUNs CWAs forcing 
all convection east of the area. Nonetheless any storms that do 
develop in our area will once again be accompanied by large hail 
and damaging wind gusts. 

Zonal to northwest flow aloft will set up tomorrow as the upper 
trough pushes east. A subtle wave in the NW flow aloft will provide 
just enough lift in the afternoon for storms to initiate east of the 
dryline. Again, the Rolling Plains will be favored with areas east 
of I-27 possibly seeing some action. As with today, CAPE values will 
be robust however, Shear values will limited and convective 
temperatures will be harder to reach thanks to todays cold front. 
Thus, capping may be an issue. For now we have gone with very low 
end PoPs for areas east of I-27 and will wait for one more model 
iteration before increasing further.  

Tuesday and onward...a ridge of high pressure builds overhead with 
southeasterly surface flow under the ridge drawing in Gulf moisture. 
As a result, as subtle waves move over the ridge, afternoon/evening 
rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of 
NW CWA Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. For now we will try not to 
get too cute with mid-week PoPs given convection placement is highly 
dependent on the exact placement of the ridge.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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