425 FXUS65 KBYZ 231524 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 924 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .UPDATE... Latest CAMS models tracking with previous thinking about timing and tracks of afternoon/evening convection. No update. borsum && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon... Warmer and less windy today and Monday, but still a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Upper low has exited the area to the north and flow aloft is transitioning from northerly to westerly this morning. There will be a few disturbances crossing the area in this westerly flow over the next few days that will combine with residual instability to produce mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. None of this activity is strong or organized and will initiate mainly in the western mountains and drift east with the prevailing mid level winds. Temperatures will respond to less cloud cover and downslope winds with highs in the 70s both today and Monday. Chambers .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Message remains consistent for the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the period, with near 90 degrees expected on Thursday. Some garden variety thunderstorms are expected off the mountains early in the weak, with potential for strong to severe storms later in the week. Broad upper level ridging will be in place Tuesday, supporting warming temps and generally dryer conditions. Westerly flow aloft will support storm development over the mountains, and some potential for activity to shift into lower elevations. That said, downsloping flow should further inhibit any development east of the mountains. Ridging shifts eastward by Tuesday night, and southwestern flow increases over the area as a Pacific low shifts eastward toward the coast. The Pacific Low is progged to move across Washington and move NE through Canada Wednesday through Friday, keeping southwesterly flow over the region. This should support unsettled weather, and keep temperatures an the warm side. Meanwhile the Gulf of Mexico will open up and provide a supply of low to mid level moisture to the region, and instability should be on the rise. Therefore, expected to see some strong to severe storms from Wednesday into the weekend. Track of Pacific Low continues to be uncertain, therefore the overall forecast from Wednesday onward is prone to change. Although temps are still expected to be warm, just how warm is in question. Likewise, coverage and strength of storms will also vary, as the actual path of the Pacific Low will change amount of Gulf moisture brought into the region. Gilstad && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again this evening and into the night, mainly west of a KMLS-K4BQ line. Mountains will be obscured overnight. Gilstad/Vertz && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 075 053/075 051/080 055/085 057/088 058/084 056/082 2/T 31/B 10/U 11/E 21/B 11/B 21/B LVM 070 047/070 044/076 049/080 052/080 051/078 049/078 3/T 41/B 22/T 23/R 22/T 22/T 11/B HDN 075 052/074 050/080 054/086 057/089 058/085 056/083 2/T 21/B 10/U 01/E 21/B 11/B 21/B MLS 074 051/073 049/079 055/087 058/090 061/086 058/085 1/U 22/R 10/U 11/E 31/B 21/B 21/B 4BQ 073 050/073 049/079 055/088 058/092 061/088 058/085 2/T 22/R 10/U 01/B 21/U 10/B 11/U BHK 072 048/072 047/077 053/085 057/087 060/087 058/085 1/U 23/R 10/U 11/B 31/B 21/B 11/B SHR 072 047/072 046/080 052/087 054/090 056/085 053/084 2/T 34/T 31/U 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings