506 FXUS61 KLWX 231338 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide across the region from the northwest today, moving offshore by this afternoon/evening. A stalled front to our southwest will lift through the region as a warm front on Monday, followed by a weak cold front on Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to late part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Generally clear across much of the Mid-Atlantic as of mid morning. Temperatures rising steadily through the 70s, with afternoon high temps expected to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday as high pressure begins to drift offshore and light northwest flow turns southwest this afternoon, with highs into the mid 80s. Much warmer tonight and increasingly humid in light southwest return, with overnight lows into Monday morning expected to be generally in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warmer and muggier on Monday, as a stalled front, currently to our southwest, finally lifts through the region as a warm front. With this will come the threat for some showers across the area on Monday morning. As heat (highs in the upper 80s) and humidity (dew points approaching 70) build into the afternoon, and with the aforementioned front nearby, could see some thunderstorms begin to fire up during the afternoon. A cold front, associated with a surface low tracking through the Great Lakes, will also be pushing through the Ohio Valley and through the Mid-Atlantic Monday evening/night. This could be a focal point for a more organized convective system, which could have the potential to track across the region late Monday night. A few members in the 00z HREF support the development/maintenance of an MCS that would track through the region Monday evening. That being said, there are also a few that have the system fizzle out as it reaches the Blue Ridge. With this in mind, western portions of the CWA are in a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday, with the primary risk being for some damaging wind gusts. More details should fall into place as high-res guidance comes more into range, and as we see the system developing over the Ohio Valley. With westerly flow behind the cold front, not expecting much to linger into Tuesday, so only carrying slight chance POPs throughout the day, and in the eastern zones. The aforementioned cold front is very weak in nature, and will provide little to no relief in terms of temperatures. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday will likely be hotter, with highs into the lower 90s. The only bit of "relief" will be slightly low dew points, but they will still likely feel oppressive. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Summer pattern becomes established this upcoming week with hot and relatively dry weather expected. Much of the US will be under control of upper level ridging by the middle of the week. On Wednesday, primary ridge will be building across the central United States, but another will be setting up off the southeastern US coastline. There will also be some residual troughing across the Great Lakes, so while surface high pressure and rising heights will generally be in control of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, some isolated pop-up showers/storms remain possible, especially north/west. Heights will build further on Thursday, with high pressure in control at the surface as well. With developing instability, the potential remains for a few pop-up showers/storms again but chances should be lower than Wednesday. Heights will likely be at their highest on Friday, so this should be the hottest day and have the lowest risk of shower/storm development. By Saturday, the ridge across the central United States is progged to become very amplified with both 23/00z ECMWF/GFS depicting 590+ 500mb heights into central Canada. This will help induce troughing to develop across the northeastern United States, and thus increasing the probabilities for convective activity, while also slightly lowering temperatures/humidity. Highs likely to be in the low-mid 90s each day Wednesday through Friday, possibly cooling by several degrees Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through tonight with high pressure dominating the area. Some fog is possible overnight near CHO. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday, with restrictions possible at all terminals. Light SW winds expected for the most part, but could see gusty winds with any thunderstorms that manage to develop, especially if they manage to become organized into a linear feature. Primarily VFR expected Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. && .MARINE... Light winds expected through tonight as high pressure slides off the coast. SW flow expected tomorrow, but should remain largely below SCA criteria. However, showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, some of which could produce gusty winds and prompt Special Marine Warnings. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CJL NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM/DHOF/CJL MARINE...MM/DHOF/CJL