779 FXUS64 KOUN 231000 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms will exist over northern Oklahoma this morning spreading southward through the day. By afternoon most thunderstorms will be along a weak surface front south of I-40. Very large hail is possible over southern Oklahoma this afternoon.Gusty south to southwest winds are expected outside of thunderstorms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ DISCUSSION... Main focus was on Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of the area this morning with the highest chances across northern Oklahoma. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with hail and strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rain and flooding will also be a concern this morning. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon and evening near a front and/or outflow boundaries into the warm sector. This activity will also have some upper level support with a shortwave expected to move into and across the central/southern Plains today and tonight. There is still some uncertainty with how things will evolve later today due to the potential effects from this morning's convection. Some severe storms seem possible again this afternoon and evening with the potential for discrete storms initially but transitioning into one or more complexes that move across the area. Very large hail and strong winds will be possible with the initial activity with damaging winds becoming an increasing concern late this afternoon/evening. Heavy rain and flooding is also a concern today so will continue with the Flood Watch. Did extend in time portions of northern OK in the watch. The heavy rain could end before or around 6Z but will not change the end time of the Flood Watch from 12Z for now. Showers/storms could be possible again on Tuesday across portions of the fa. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds. Models show upper ridge trying to build into the region this week which would begin to limit rain chances. However, depending on the strength and position of the ridge, there could be enough moisture in the area that sfc heating could lead to some storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 85 62 85 64 / 60 50 10 0 Hobart OK 88 62 88 65 / 40 30 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 91 67 87 67 / 70 60 10 10 Gage OK 80 55 86 62 / 20 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 62 84 63 / 80 30 0 0 Durant OK 88 68 86 68 / 60 80 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-038>048-050>052. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ005. TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ090. && $$ 25/25/09