376 FXUS62 KTAE 230655 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Subsidence associated with the deep layer ridging will act to supress most convective activity across the region. Some high- res model runs are showing that as the day unfolds, daytime heating will act to remove subsidence capping which will allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop by 3-4pm EDT. Probability, intensity and location of any convective activity is uncertain at this time. For this reason, PoPs will remain low (below 20%). Other than that, expect a hot and sunny summer day with heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees by mid to late afternoon. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The upper ridge gradually flattens across our region on Monday with nearly zonal flow through Tuesday as a short wave ejects northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will push into the southeast CONUS but will stall as it lays out west to east north of our CWA on Tuesday. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across our northwest zones on Monday due to close proximity to the front. While moisture is forecast to be a bit more plentiful across the entire FA on Tuesday, PoPs are still expected to be below seasonal levels (20-30%). Heat will continue to be the bigger issue, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s both afternoons and heat indices generally between 100-105 degrees. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Moisture and instability will gradually increase across the region through the remainder of the week into next weekend. By the end of the week we will transition into a more typical summertime pattern with diurnal sea breeze convection and PoPs around 50%. Highs will gradually drop through the week back to the lower 90s which is also more typical of this time of year. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] Both vicinity and brief TSRA possible at all terminals beginning in the 18Z-22Z time frame and ending 23Z-03Z, except ECP. Cannot rule out brief MVFR/IFR restrictions in TSRA. Otherwise, VFR at all terminals until 06-09Z, when cigs and vsbys lower into MVFR/ IFR, with brief LIFR possible at DHN. Returning to VFR 12-14Z. The exception is ECP with VFR prevailing through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Generally, light winds and low seas are forecast for the next several days. Keep in mind that we do expect afternoon enhancements in wind and chop near the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Although there will be a slight drying trend into tomorrow, min RH values will be mostly above 40. No fire weather concerns through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread average rain amounts over the next week do not warrant any flooding concerns, with little or no rain expected through early this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 72 96 75 97 / 20 0 10 10 20 Panama City 89 78 88 79 90 / 10 0 10 10 20 Dothan 96 72 96 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 30 Albany 95 72 95 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 97 71 97 75 96 / 20 10 10 0 20 Cross City 94 73 93 75 95 / 10 0 10 10 20 Apalachicola 90 77 89 78 90 / 10 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DiCatarina SHORT TERM...Barry LONG TERM...Barry AVIATION...DiCatarina MARINE...Barry FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina HYDROLOGY...Harrigan