048 
FXUS64 KLUB 221945
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Current observations showing a surface front bisecting South Plains 
with the dryline just across the NM border and a surface lee side 
trough in SE NM. By late afternoon the surface trough will begin to 
move northward and as this occurs it will force the surface front 
northward and turn our surface flow southeast. With the surface flow 
more southeasterly two things will be allowed to happen. Firstly, 
the dryline will be able to surge into our area and secondly strong 
surface to 850H theta-e advection will take place over much of the 
area. With CAPE values pushing 3000 J/kg and added upper level 
support provided by a shortwave trough moving over the area, 
convection is very likely. Now where the convection actually occurs 
will be highly dependent on where the aforementioned dryline and 
cold front end up. Yesterday the dryline didn't make it nearly as 
far east as this forecaster had predicted. Given little change to 
the environment and overall pattern the dryline will probably behave 
very similarly. Thus, it is fair to think that the dryline will 
probably make it as far east as I-27 but not much further east and 
the cold front will lift across the far southern Texas Panhandle. As 
a result areas east of I-27 will have the best chances for 
convection with the far NE Rolling Plains being the most favorable 
area. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main impacts 
with severe storms given the very large CAPE values, steep lapse 
rates and Bulk shear values near 40 kts. 

A similar scenario will play out tomorrow as another "cold" front 
is progged to move through the CWA from north to south with possible 
convection along the dryline. The main difference this time is that 
the upper level trough axis will cut through the center of the CWA 
and both the flow aloft and at the surface will be westerly. This 
will push the dryline much further east into the Rolling Plains. 
Convection that does occur will favor the SE Rolling Plains where 
the moisture will be more readily available. 

In the wake of the upper level trough zonal flow sets up at the 
start of the week followed by subtropical ridging building west of 
the area by mid week. For now we will continue with a dry forecast 
because chances of convection are highly dependent on the exact 
placement of the ridge and if convection occurs in eastern NM and 
propagates towards our CWA.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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