855 FXUS65 KSLC 221005 AAA AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 404 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cold airmass will settle in across the region through today. A warming trend will bring some of the warmest temperatures of the year by mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... First full day of Summer, June 22nd, why not have a little Lake Effect? GOES-E shows a water temperature of around 68F for the Great Salt Lake. When adjusting the HRRR BUFKIT sounding at KSLC, greater than 1000 J/kg of Lake Induced CAPE, NCAPE near 0.15 and equilibrium level of near 25kft are supported. Interestingly, in-house 3km model showed this scenario. Convection may be supported through mid morning. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)... All indications are that outlying Dixie will see northerly wind gusts continue to diminish through sunrise this morning. Trough continues to elongate aloft as several disturbances progress through. The first one is currently swinging east into Colorado taking much of the short term prospect for convection along with it. The trailing wave pivots overhead this afternoon and evening, acting as a kicker progressing the trough downstream. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected east of the Wasatch Front this afternoon and early evening as HREF indicates the development of weak instability under the cold pool aloft, ahead of the trailing wave. The combination of building anticyclonic flow aloft, height rises and warming aloft, will end the threat of convective weather tonight. A warming/drying trend begins tomorrow, and will continue through early next week. The next closed low drops south along the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday, supporting amplification downstream and the development of southwest flow aloft. Western valleys will likely begin to see breezy southwest winds develop Tuesday. .LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)... The forecast area is expected to be under a mild southwest flow for much of the long term period in between a ridge over the central United States and a broad trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This will maintain mostly dry conditions with maxes up to 5F above seasonal normals through Thursday. Global models indicate the trough will move inland, pushing into Oregon and Idaho Thursday into early Friday before sliding northward late Friday into Saturday. This scenario would push a mostly dry cold front into northern Utah, cooling maxes to near seasonal normals over northern portions of the forecast area with little change in temperatures over southern Utah for day seven. && .AVIATION... The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout the day. Northwest winds are expected to become light southeasterly between 10Z and 12Z before returning to the northwest between 15Z and 17Z. There is a 30 percent chance that the wind shift to the southeast will not occur or winds will become light and variable for a time during the early morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... ERC values are running below the 50th percentile. There is no clear trend in values during the past several days. It will remain cool with elevated RH values today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the mountains and eastern valleys. Snow level is between 8-9kft. A warming and drying trend begins tomorrow and continues through mid week with breezy southwest winds. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...10 LONG TERM/AVIATION...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php