530 
FXUS64 KSJT 220947
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
447 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, mostly cloudy skies prevailed over West
Central Texas, with temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. A
stationary boundary was located over the Oklahoma Panhandle, while
the dryline was located along the Texas/New Mexico border. Today,
a warm and humid airmass will continue for the region, with CAPE 
of 4000 J/kg. A weak shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft 
will push northeast today, aiding in the development of isolated 
to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. A few 
thunderstorms may linger overnight, especially for the Big 
Country. 

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Next Saturday)

A much more significant shortwave trough will dip into the
southern Plains on Sunday. While CAPE will continue to be in the
4000-5000 J/kg range, the atmosphere will largely remain capped
for much of the day. By evening, a weak cold front will drop down
into north Texas, and intersect the bulging dryline. Mid-level 
flow should increase to 40-50KT, thereby increasing the wind shear
and likely lead to a line of thunderstorms developing overnight. 
These conditions are ripe for a damaging wind threat, but only if 
they come together just right. For now, models show this line 
initiating over the Big Country and progressing southeast toward 
the Hill Country by early Monday morning. Although the timing may 
change between now and then, confidence is fairly high for strong 
to severe thunderstorms to affect northern and central Texas 
Sunday Night into early Monday morning.

The surface front should stall over the Big Country on Monday and
Tuesday, with the bulk of the dynamics focusing convection over 
east and northeast Texas. Still, the airmass should remain 
unstable enough to generate thunderstorms across much of the Hill 
Country and I-10 corridor, as some weak mid-level disturbances 
moving through. The increased cloud cover should help to keep 
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s during this period.

For Wednesday through the rest of the week, global models 
indicate a 591dam ridge settling in across much of northern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest. This should limit most chances for 
thunderstorms around here, and allow temperatures to persist in
the mid 90s.

SK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 92  74  94  67 /  20  20  20  50 
San Angelo 	 95  73  96  70 /  20  10   5  50 
Junction 	 91  74  94  72 /  20  10  10  40 
Brownwood 	 92  74  93  68 /  20  20  30  50 
Sweetwater 	 94  73  94  68 /  20  20  10  40 
Ozona      	 90  73  92  70 /  20  10   5  30 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$