379 
FXUS63 KBIS 211930
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

The threat of severe thunderstorms over the southern James River
Valley this afternoon and evening highlights the short term
forecast period. 

Some breaks in the clouds over the southern James River Valley
have allowed a plume of surface based CAPE to develop ranging from
500 to 1500 J/kg. At the moment, effective layer bulk shear is
somewhat weak in this area but is expected to increase to the 30
to 40 knot range over the next few hours. Showers in this area
have begun to take on a more convective nature and one
thunderstorm has just developed over Dickey county. More should 
continue to develop through the afternoon. For more details
regarding the severe weather threat, please see the recently 
issued mesoscale discussion #1177 from the Storm Prediction Center
and the latest Day One Convective Outlook.

After precipitation moves out of the area tonight, expect a few
wrap around showers or thunderstorms across the northwest on 
Saturday with more sunshine than clouds across most of western and
central North Dakota. Behind the departing low, breezy winds out
of the west southwest will also develop Saturday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Increasing temperatures, humidity, and severe thunderstorm
potential mid to late next week highlights the extended forecast.

The 12z GEFS 850 hPa/2 meter temperature and CAPE plumes continue
to advertise increasing temperatures, humidity, and severe 
potential mid to late next week with a transition to southwest 
flow aloft. This is also well reflected in CIPS analog temperature
anomalies and severe report analogs for the pattern when compared
with climatology. We have elected to continue highlighting the 
potential in general terms in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as 
the signal has been fairly consistent in the medium range 
guidance. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across much of western and central North Dakota this afternoon,
with a few strong to severe storms possible over the southern
James River Valley, arcing into the northwest part of the state
along and east/north of the Missouri River/Lake Sakakawea. MVFR
conditions with some scattered IFR ceilings will remain in place
across most of the forecast area through the evening before the
precipitation moves east. As the area dries out, expect VFR
conditions for the rest of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH