462 FXUS62 KCHS 211446 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1046 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will persist over the Southeast through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: No major changes with the latest update. In the wake of yesterday's upper disturbance that kicked off the severe weather across the region, DNVA aloft will be the rule with sinking trajectories noted through the vertical column with a deep layered WNW flow aloft. The main issue today will be the hot temperatures as a result of a pinned sea breeze and a downsloping boundary layer flow throughout the day. We raised high temps a couple degrees along the coastal corridor given the synoptic pattern across the region. With abundant sunshine today, the low-level thickness values should work well. While mid 90s high temps common, it should even be a hot day at area beaches with some 90 degree highs possible. We think that low level dew points will tend to mix out fairly well this afternoon with apparent temps across the region maxing out in the in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees north to close to advisory criteria along south coastal GA. We opted against a Heat Advisory in coastal/southern GA since forecast heat index numbers were very marginal. Surface winds will average 10-15 mph from the WNW today. Tonight: A weak front may sag toward our northern SC zones late. Our region should remain dry overnight with light winds under mainly clear skies. Temps will be in the lower to mid 70s by daybreak on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The mid-levels will consist of ridging building over the Southeast. Several disturbances within the flow are expected to pass overhead during the short term, enhancing the risk for convection. At the surface, a stationary front will be over or just north of the Charleston Tri-County Saturday morning. This front will lift northward into the evening while inland troughing develops. The trough is expected to prevail through Monday. The typical summertime moisture and instability will be in place each afternoon. Saturday has the most instability, with models showing very impressive values. SPC has us under a Marginal Risk that day, but we wouldn't be surprised to see it upgraded, especially if shear increases. There is certainly the potential for organized convection to develop, with some severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and large hail. Sunday and Monday could also experience showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. High temperatures should be a few degrees above normal. Additionally, heat index values around 105 F in the coastal corridor each afternoon could have us flirting with Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak troughing will prevail across the Southeast. The typical afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms are expected. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR at KCHS/KSAV through 12Z/22. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... The low level pressure gradient will weaken later this morning with the mean flow offshore this morning near wind directions will back to southwest this afternoon as the land mass heats. Winds after mid morning into tonight will average 15 kt or less and seas 2 to 4 ft, highest offshore early. Extended Marine: The coastal waters will remain sandwiched between a trough of low pressure over the Southeast and high pressure over the Atlantic. Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...