569 FXUS64 KMAF 210001 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 701 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .DISCUSSION... Please see 00Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue over the nxt 24 hrs. Gusty SW winds will subsided after sunset and veer out of the SSE at FST, INK, and MAF as the dryline retreats westward. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ DISCUSSION... Dry southwesterly winds and full sunshine on this day before the summer solstice (10:54 am CDT/9:54 am MDT Friday) has sent the mercury above 100 degrees F across much of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Currently KMAF sits at 105 degrees F and, with a few more hours left of sensible heating, temperatures could rise by a degree or two. As a result, we'll keep the heat advisory in effect through 7 pm CDT. A look at things today shows a pronounced PNA pattern with blockiness across Canada. Over the western and central CONUS, quasi-zonal flow is observed. An anomalously cold upper low over the northern Rockies will amplify a bit as it drops southeast while upper level ridging will build over the Southeast. This pattern will put us in increasingly southwesterly flow aloft Friday and Saturday. Strong heating along and behind the dryline Friday will result in a deep mixed layer while low level convergence and CAPE values running around 2000 J/kg along and east of the dryline. This ought to be enough to promote convective initiation in a few places Friday afternoon. These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce marginally severe hail and wind; however, have opted to hold off on highlighting this for now and later shifts will monitor CAMs for a better handle on things. Temperatures Friday will be a few degrees cooler as winds back some and we lose the downslope component, but readings above 100 degrees F are expected across a good chunk of the Permian Basin, the upper Trans Pecos, and southeastern New Mexico, as well as along the Rio Grande. For the weekend, expect the dryline to slosh east during the day and retreat westward at night. Could see some isolated thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and especially early Saturday evening across the western Low Rolling Plains and the eastern Permian Basin. The same scenario should play out Sunday afternoon and evening, with better chances of rain as a short wave trough approaches from the Rockies. Later shifts will have to monitor the rain chances Sunday as the dryline could hold back a bit more and thus isolated thunderstorms may be possible back across the central Basin...stay tuned. Temperatures will not be as warm as the low level thermal ridge is suppressed some due to the aforementioned short wave trough. As we get into the work week, the PNA pattern flips as another upper low reloads off the Pacific Northwest coast. The GFS and ECMWF are similar in the amplitude of the low but a little different in the phasing as the low migrates eastward. Regardless of the placement and timing, the end result will be building upper heights over the Plains states...is this the awaited Death Ridge? We'll see. In the meantime, expect temperatures at or slightly above climatology. There's some low-order PoPs in places as well but for the most part we have a dry forecast through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 100 73 96 / 0 20 20 10 Carlsbad 66 101 67 98 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 77 99 74 97 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 74 100 71 98 / 0 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 68 94 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 99 67 97 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 60 95 59 93 / 0 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 102 73 99 / 0 20 20 10 Odessa 75 102 72 99 / 0 20 10 10 Wink 69 103 71 101 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Crane-Ector- Glasscock-Lower Brewster County-Midland-Upton. && $$ 24