417 FXUS61 KCTP 202322 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 722 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving storm system will push across the state overnight Friday will be cooler and drier, and the pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Meso anal shows a nearly stationary East-West front over my northern counties. Convection is increasing over western Pa in response to the approaching North-South cold front which is just nearing the PA/OH border. The HRRR shows the showers and storms becoming widespread as they move east and into the CWA over the next several hours. Latest RAP shows a bubble of PWATS exceeding 1.5" pooling right along the front. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s the airmass is primed to take advantage of the modest instability supporting localized torrential downpours with rates of 1-2 inches per hour. The flash flood watch remains in effect through 05Z Friday. The front is slated to move very slowly with the upper trough supporting additional showers well into the overnight and even into early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Breezy and drier/less humid conditions will arrive Friday as showers retreat in the wake of the departing system. Some patchy fog in the valleys is possible during the predawn and early morning Saturday-Sunday. Expect a welcomed break from the rain for 2-3 days with pleasant conditions through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A more summerlike pattern arrives for Monday and lasts through next week. A warm front pushing through early Monday will bring clouds and showers, lingering into the afternoon in the north. Humidity will rise again with dewpoints increasing to the mid 60s for much of the week. The GFS model is suggesting modest instability each afternoon next week, with afternoon thunderstorms possible. Whether or not there will be organized convection will depend on if any disturbances in the mid or upper atmosphere align with the peak of the diurnal instability. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Updated TAFS here shortly after 4 PM. Main line of storms east of our area. Still some showers and isolated thunder across the northwest. Models hint at more showers and storms later moving in from the west. For now, did adjust the TAFS some based on obs and radar. Left later showers and storms in fcst for now, will see how things play out on the radar. Earlier discussion below. MVFR cigs and vsbys will continue at most TAF sites, with periods of IFR in heavier showers. Currently MDT is IFR with MVFR and JST. The humid and unsettled conditions will again bring areas of showers/tstms continuing through the evening hours. Best chance for a more organized line of convection will be early evening out ahead of the front. Any thunderstorm or shower will be capable of very heavy rainfall along with local IFR restrictions and gusty winds. A low pressure area slides across PA tonight. Showers will taper off, but lower ceilings will return to the NW including BFD overnight. Friday will bring improving conditions with widespread VFR conditions late Friday morning, generally after 15Z. .Outlook... Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Then VFR. Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...Ceiling restrictions poss in rain showers. Tue...Still a chance of showers, mainly northwest. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical summer (solstice) begins Friday, June 21st at 1154AM EDT (1554 UTC). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Ceru/Martin CLIMATE...