656 FXUS65 KABQ 201738 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE High-based cumulus clouds will continue to develop through the afternoon, but there is minimal chance for any shower or thunderstorm development due to drier air. VFR conditions will therefore prevail. Moderate breezes will also prevail this afternoon with occasional gusts of 20 to 30 kt being common. After diminishing around sunset this evening, winds will re-strengthen Friday in the late morning to early afternoon hours with higher speeds. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry conditions will prevail today with high temperatures soaring well above normal today over most of the region. Temperatures will begin to cool Friday into the weekend as a mostly dry weather system pushes through the southern Rockies through Sunday. Expect below normal temperatures over the weekend with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will begin to rise to near normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... There isn't a great deal of change overall with this forecast package. The global models are in general agreement on the timing of the trough though the Great Basin and southern Rockies this weekend. The main difference in the 00Z runs is now the GFS has now backed off on the development of a closed low over the Great Basin, instead progressing an open trough through the region. The remaining models either maintain or spin-up a closed low throughout the eastward progression. As of now this doesn't impact the local forecast much but trends will need to be monitored as the path of the trough (or closed low) will impact weekend temperatures and precipitation chances. In the next 48 hours, the main story will be temperatures, low humidities, and breezy conditions ahead of the trough. A lee side low is expected to develop over SE CO/OK Panhandle and will keep winds on the breezy side. Temperatures today are expected to be the warmest of the week with readings over the century mark in southeast New Mexico and in the mid 80's to low-mid 90's over much of the remainder of the area. Precipitation chances through Friday will be limited to the northeast this afternoon with just a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will start to dip Friday as the aforementioned trough starts to approach the region. Going into the weekend, temperatures will cool significantly from the close of the work week with daytime highs dropping as much as 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals by Sunday. The main change in the forecast package was the introduction of some isolated dry thunderstorms over the north-central portions of the region on Saturday afternoon. Models are varying with how widespread they are depicting the precipitation along the mostly-dry front on Saturday with the GFS and NAM being the most bullish. Model soundings are consistent however in showing a strong dry layer below any elevated convection that does fire off, so any showers and thunderstorms that do develop Saturday will likely be dry west of the Central Mountain Chain. In the extended, a ridge will rebuild into the region, bringing high temperatures back above normal. Models are continuing to imply a monsoon-like moisture surge by midweek with Gulf return moisture helping to develop convection over the region. At this time confidence in the coverage is fairly low, so only lower end PoPs are in the forecast days 5-7. 54/Fontenot && .FIRE WEATHER... ..FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40... Little to no convection is expected today through Friday night. Today will be the warmest day of the week overall with highs near to above normal. Slight cooling expected over the region Friday, but highs remain above average across the east. Fair to poor overnight humidity recoveries will continue to dominate northern and central New Mexico tonight and Friday night, centered over the Middle RGV. Areal coverage and duration of single digit humidities also expands over western and southern New Mexico and will be in conjunction with widespread high Haines today through Friday. Winds will be strong enough to trigger spotty critical fire weather conditions over portions of the far west and Northeast Highlands and Plains today. Friday will see the greatest coverage of critical conditions, over portions of the west, south, and most of the eastern plains. Added the Middle RGV and West Central Highlands to the Fire Weather Watch Friday as areal coverage of forecast critical conditions expanded over these zones with this forecast package. Forecast models still indicate a return to below normal high temperatures by Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms return to northern New Mexico late Saturday as a cold front and upper trough cross the region. Some of this activity could be dry, especially over the northwest and portions of the north central. Windy and dry conditions could produce areas of critical fire weather conditions over the northeast and east central Saturday afternoon in advance of the cold front. High temperatures remain near to below average early next week, with mostly dry weather. Low level moisture may begin to slosh farther west and into the eastern plains by mid next week. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the following zones... NMZ105>109. && $$