741 FXUS61 KCTP 200638 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. A pleasant and dry weekend is in store. Temperatures will trend a little cooler than normal for Friday and Saturday with warmer weather returning next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... dual short wave troughs making showers and thunderstorms over the east and the west with little in between at the moment. These showers are moving along with some pace, lifting generally NE at 20-25 MPH. The trouble spots from last evening are receiving rainfall again, and have continued flood advisories there for another couple of hours. HTVP1 is almost to flood stage, but most of that rise was due to immediate/local effects, and it should turn around soon. However, it may touch flood stage before subsiding for a short while. Expect the convection to continue moving N/NE through the morning. Some locally/patchy dense fog is out there, but should get any more widespread without any good clearing. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A distinct low center will develop and push into wrn PA in the morning hours. This low is sub-1000mb and anomalously strong for the beginning of Summer. It will push its southward trailing cold front through during the afternoon and early evening. The coincidence of the old west-east front, anomalously high PWATs, and this decent long- wave trough + sfc low moving thru around peak heating will generate thunderstorms. Some of them will produce very heavy rainfall, and severe wind gusts/hail with as increasing vertical shear and a veering/broad loop hodograph. An isolated tornado or two is possible as well due to the boundary/shear and low LCLs present - especially from the KUNV/KIPT vicinity SE to the Lower Susq Valley. The heavy rain will probably cause some flooding, but the flooding threat area is not highly certain at this point. We may need a flash flood watch for Thursday, but later shifts can take a closer look. It's a little far out to post a watch just yet. The potent sfc low pressure center (~995 mb) should be over NE PA by nightfall, and the cold front dragging down thru MDT. Wrap around could make some sct SHRA over the W Thurs night, but it will be drying out and getting a little gusty by Fri morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Breezy and drier/less humid conditions will arrive Thursday night through Friday on the backside of the departing system. Expect a break from the rain for 2-3 days with pleasant conditions through the weekend before a surge in humidity returns showers and storms to the forecast next week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain continues to move eastward with the strongest storms moving into eastern PA. The decoupling atmosphere will bring light winds and IFR and lower cigs and vsbys. UNV has already gone to LIFR. LNS, MDT, BFD and IPT could go IFR between 05Z to 09Z. So look for areas of fog/low stratus clouds through Thursday morning. Cigs and vsbys will slowly improve mid to late morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday morning, early Thursday afternoon. .Outlook... Thu...Rain/low cigs possible north. Scattered-numerous PM tsra impacts likely Central and Southern PA. Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical summer (solstice) begins Friday, June 21st at 1154AM EDT (1554 UTC). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru CLIMATE...