967 FXUS63 KEAX 191733 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 452 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2019 Rain showers and thunderstorms expanded across northern Missouri overnight as isentropic lift increased over a quasi-stationary/slow moving front extending from northeast Missouri southwestward to an area of low pressure in south-central Kansas. This area of lift across northern Missouri has resulted in an axis of moderate to heavy rainfall generally along Hwy 36. Several locations along this axis have already seen up to 2 inches of rainfall and could possibly see another few inches over the next several hours if this rain axis remains along this corridor. The low-level jet will weaken later this morning as it pushes off to the south and east, and the axis of heavy rain should taper off as a result. However, precipitation chances will continue over much of the area through late this afternoon as the main shortwave trough the Northern Plains. Thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish late this afternoon with some showers possible into the early evening. Lack of flow will keep the overall severe threat low, but this will also allow for possible localized flooding concerns given slow storm movement and periods of locally heavy rainfall. Tonight, and much of the day Thursday, will be rather quiet weather- wise behind this system. The only exception will be late Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper low located across BC ejects a quick moving shortwave trough that will drop into the Northern Plains. This feature will bode watching as several models have latched onto either one of two general solutions: 1) convection developing across Nebraska Thursday will bring a potent MCS into southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri, and northeast Kansas Thursday evening and/or early Friday morning or 2) a line of organized storms will initiate along the associated front in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Thursday during the late afternoon or early evening hours. Given progged CAPE values of 3500-4000+ J/kg and deep layer shear values of 45-50kts...any storm will quickly organize. Current short-range modeled hodographs show a strongly curved hodograph Thursday afternoon and evening indicating that supercells with all modes of severe weather will be possible...including tornadoes. That said...we will need to keep an eye on hi-res/CAM model trends to see if this current Thursday evening trend continues. Heading into Friday, we could see temperatures near 90 degrees as shortwave ridging builds over the central conus. Unfortunately, dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s will result in heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s making for a hot and humid day. Thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend and into next week as western trough approaches from the west. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019 MVFR conditions are expected to continue for a few more hours along the MO and KS border and then through the early overnight hours for those in central MO. The low pressure system is slowly moving east today and will keep shower and storm chances through the late evening hours for much of the area. Tonight, surface high pressure will move southeast into the region. This and the left over moisture near the surface will create good conditions for fog, especially in northeast MO. Any fog that develops should diminish shortly after sunrise, leaving the rest of the TAF period VFR. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ008-017-024- 025-032-033. && $$ Discussion...PPietrycha Aviation...Grana