875 FXUS61 KBGM 190205 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1005 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across the area on Wednesday. Another stronger low will bring more showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night. A period of dry weather settles in Friday into early Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 10 pm update...Forecast soundings showing some weak elevated instability through midnight now, with about 100 J/kg of CAPE. Dry air finally comes in around midnight or just after and showers should diminish. Kept scattered showers in the forecast for our western counties for a few more hours and then just isolated/slight chance for showers thereafter. 7 pm update... Made only minor changes to PoP based on latest Radar, with showers more scattered across Steuben County and very limited shower activity elsewhere. After sunset, should see showers diminish rather quickly, but with the very wet conditions, fog could become rather thick in some locations overnight. 340 pm update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the potential for scattered showers and a few weak storms this afternoon and early evening...the development of low clouds and fog tonight...and more scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. Weak upper wave and associated surface front will continue to track to the east late this afternoon with a few lingering rain showers passing through the Poconos and far srn Catskills. A post-frontal air mass is currently moving into central NY with a few very weak showers and storms popping up...which should continue through sunset. The air mass will stabilize tonight and allow for the development of low clouds and fog. Atmosphere will remain unsettled tonight...and cannot rule out a stray light rain shower...so have kept with a slight chance of rain through tonight. The potential for rain increases during the late morning on Wednesday as the air mass destabilizes. ML CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and weak to moderate deep layer shear will promote convective initiation, but the combination of weak upper level forcing...shallow low level lapse rates and the presence of an ill- defined surface boundary should keep the storms in check for the most part. The threat for showers and storms peaks during the afternoon and early evening, and then starts to diminish after sunset and through the overnight hours. The main concern with any storms that do form will likely be hail and strong wind gusts. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding is on the lower end of the scale given the presence of a relatively deep layer of dry air aloft. Isolated rainfall amounts around a half inch are not out of the question, but widespread amounts will likely be a quarter inch or less. Temperatures tonight will remain fairly mild with lows dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s in the Catskills and Poconos...and into the mid 70s to lower 80s along and west of I-81. Another mild night Wednesday night with lows bottoming out in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 pm update... Thursday into Thursday night will be the main issue for the week. An upper level trough will move through with a surface low and cold front tracking through PA. Models very similar the last few days on the scenario. Heavy rain will be ahead of with the surface low Thursday into Thursday evening. Pwats will be 1.5" to almost 2". The individual cells will be moving but the entire duration of the rain will be long. Models are showing stripes of heavy rain just about anywhere in the CWA. Widespread average amounts of 1 inch is likely. Thunderstorms with heavy rain could up the amounts to a few inches. Too far out to say where the heaviest rain will be. The most prone area will be where the flash flooding was today in NEPA. The severe threat will be best in NEPA to the Catskills in the afternoon to early evening. SPC has the area in a marginal risk. With a saturated sounding, CAPE is tall and skinny and mostly around 500. Bulk deep shear is around 35 kts. Temperatures rise only a little into the low and mid 70s Thursday. Clouds and rain will hinder the rise. Rain will push east late Thursday night. Lows from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Friday a few lingering showers will be around in the morning and quickly push east. The afternoon will be mostly dry with skies becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 pm update... Finally a dry period shows itself with a narrow north to south area of surface heights. Upper level heights are building but the ridge doesn't get here until Sunday. Friday afternoon to Sunday should be mainly dry but showers try to push in from the west Sunday. It finally gets in the vicinity Sunday night continuing into Tuesday. Models not agreeing on the timing or the amounts. Temperatures on the cool side of normal with highs getting into the upper 70s starting Sunday. Lows start around 50 then rise to around 60 with the showers Monday night. previous discussion... Looking at next week, more in the way of summerlike weather may end being in the cards as a predominately +PNA becomes negative. As a result, the mean trough with cooler air masses likely shifts into the west and ridging develops over the eastern United States. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC gives higher chances for above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. This could be a significant reversal from the cool wet pattern of the last 6 weeks or so. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites until at least 04Z, with KSYR likely remaining VFR throughout the entire TAF period. KRME will likely have a brief period of MVFR ceilings between 10Z and 13Z. Low clouds and fog are expected to develop at KITH, KELM, KBGM, and KAVP, bringing associated restrictions late tonight/early Wednesday morning. This will especially be the case at KELM and KBGM, where visibilities will likely drop to 3SM or less beginning between 04Z and 06Z, with associated ALT MIN ceilings. Any remaining fog will likely dissipate by the mid-late morning hours. Instability ramps back up late Wednesday morning into the afternoon with more scattered showers and isolated storms possible. That being said, confidence is currently not high enough to include in this set of TAFs. Weak flow will allow light and variable winds at all sites throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...Periods of occasional lowered flight categories likely, with the possibility of SHRA/TSRA. The greatest coverage will likely occur Thursday. Friday and Saturday...VFR conditions likely as high pressure builds in. Sunday...Conditions will likely remain VFR most of the day, with a few restrictions developing later in the day. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MWG/TAC AVIATION...BJG/BJT