849 FXUS65 KTFX 180952 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 352 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Near-normal temperatures through this Tuesday will be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. The best chance for these showers and storms exists each afternoon and evening, as well as over and near higher terrain. A cooling trend begins this Wednesday and continues through the upcoming weekend, with below-normal temperatures expected next week Thursday through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible. In addition, some snow may fall in the mountains, including Glacier Park. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday...Weak ridging continues, and upper level disturbances running through a northwesterly flow aloft, continue to support afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. Variable gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rain are always possible in and near thunderstorms. Wednesday...A trough approaches from the west and begins to move through our area. The associated strong cold front passes through The Treasure State from the west northwest to the east south- east. Instability, lift and moisture will continue to favor thunderstorm activity. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a marginal risk of severe weather along the eastern boarder of our southwest Montana forecast area. Following cold frontal passage, fire weather concerns are expected to be elevated to near-critical. Please, see our Fire Weather Forecast for more information. Thursday through Monday...The trough continues to rotate slowly over our area, moving slowly eastward, and causing a cooling trend. Expect below normal temperatures for this time of year. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon and evening throughout this forecast period. Snow levels will fall to about 6000 feet MSL, allowing for some snow to fall and accumulate at higher elevations. Expect a gradual warming trend on Sunday and Monday with highs on Monday reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... Updated 1135 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 (18/06Z TAFs) General VFR conditions will prevail across most terminals through the forecast period, with a chance of MVFR conditions possible under developing thunderstorms and showers Tuesday afternoon & evening. -TP && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front should sweep eastward across north-central and southwest MT on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front. In addition, southwesterly winds ahead of the front should shift to stronger westerly winds behind the front. These westerly winds may gust to at least 20 to 35 mph and accompany minimum relative humidity values near 15 to 30 percent in many areas Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Thus, critical fire weather conditions are possible and we will continue to monitor this situation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 78 53 73 45 / 60 10 10 20 CTB 77 50 68 40 / 50 10 30 40 HLN 80 52 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 78 47 76 40 / 40 30 20 0 WEY 70 38 68 32 / 40 30 40 20 DLN 75 47 72 39 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 78 51 76 44 / 70 40 30 20 LWT 73 49 71 42 / 80 40 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls