395 FXUS64 KJAN 180534 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: Despite lingering convection overcast skies across the area this evening, VFR flight categories area being observed at TAF sites across the area. Just as the case was this past morning, flight categories are expected to fall to MVFR/IFR status overnight due to developing low stratus and patchy fog. The lingering overnight convection will also be a likely cause for periodic degraded ceilings and visibilties as well, if convection is observed on-site. Much of the same is expected later this afternoon, as scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop across the area during the heat of the day. Winds overnight will again be calm to light from the southeast. Winds through the morning will become more west southwesterly, increasing to between 5-10 knots. /19/ && .DISCUSSION... While convective precipitation diminished earlier this evening, a shortwave trough moving slowly east across the ArkLaMiss region overnight will interact with a very moist airmass to bring additional shower activity and a few storms. Modest instability associated with the late night/early morning timing will limit the intensity of any storms. Will continue to monitor for fog development given the very humid boundary layer/moist ground conditions and light wind. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tuesday: The mid/upper shortwave will advance eastward through tomorrow, and the pool of greatest deep layer moisture will become oriented across East MS and AL. This will focus the higher rain chances in the eastern portion of the area, though isolated to scattered convection remains possible farther west. Lesser buoyancy due to development earlier in the day and relaxing low level shear may lessen the threat for isolated severe storms. /DL/ Tuesday night through Monday: Tuesday evening the shortwave trough will be shifting east of Mississippi and along with the loss of daytime heating, the chance for rain will end from the west. still be left with a rather moist airmass with PWATs around and inch and a half and surface dew points in the lower 70s. This will help maintain our warmer than normal low temperatures. Wednesday a couple additional northern stream shortwave troughs will be moving over the Plains. The northern most shortwave will support a surface low but both will track well north of our region. Models are a little slower with the southern shortwave that is expected to move over our CWA after midnight. There will be isolated to scattered mainly afternoon convection Wednesday that is not expected to be severe in our area but, in our northwest Wednesday night isolated severe storms will be possible as the shortwave moves over our CWA. Damaging winds still look to be the primary threat but hail to the size of quarters will also be possible. Thursday the shortwave will be shifting east of Mississippi while the weak cold front sags into the central portions of our CWA. Model consensus stalls this weak cold front near the Interstate 20 corridor. This boundary will prolong rain chances in our CWA through the day Thursday into Thursday night. Induced mid level ridging will strengthen over our region Friday while surface ridging continues to remain across the Florida peninsula and over the central Gulf. This will allow for warmer temperatures and lower rain chances. Mid level ridging is expected to continue strengthening over our region Saturday into Sunday as upper level troughing takes over the western CONUS and slowly tries to shift east. Models differ on how low the ridging will dominate and troughing moves in from the west. Consensus suggests a warming trend through the weekend with very little chance for rain in the east while low chances will be hard to leave out in the west. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 87 72 91 / 42 49 19 27 Meridian 71 87 73 90 / 33 66 27 34 Vicksburg 70 88 73 92 / 23 38 10 22 Hattiesburg 72 86 72 91 / 44 69 22 39 Natchez 70 87 72 90 / 28 39 10 22 Greenville 70 88 74 92 / 18 28 16 26 Greenwood 70 87 74 90 / 23 43 19 29 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19