556 FXUS61 KRNK 171930 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will linger over the Mid Atlantic this week. Waves of low pressure should track eastward along this front, which will provide a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions should continue through this time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... The 12Z RNK sounding reveals a precipitable water of 1.20 inches and a considerably high freezing level. Wind shear is rather light, so the threat for any severe weather this afternoon appears marginal. However, thunderstorms that develop will be quite efficient in producing rainfall. CAPE should exceed 2,000 J/kg during the next couple hours, which will increase the expected coverage of storms. By tonight, the showers and thunderstorms should wane as instability decreases. Leftover cloudiness from earlier convection and the humid air mass will keep low temperatures in the 60s. More showers and thunderstorms appear likely for Tuesday as a shortwave upper level trough moves overhead. As a result, POPs were increased across the CWA. Again, heavy rainfall will likely occur in the storms due to the high freezing levels and above average precipitable water. SPC also maintains a marginal threat of severe weather for Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Showers/Storms associated with upper level shortwave trough are expected to move east of the forecast area after midnight Tuesday, increasing stability and west-northwest downslope wind bringing an end to the convective threat. Will maintain slight chance pops to account for any lingering showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but think overall chance for rain will end with passage of the shortwave and onset of negative vorticity advection (NVA). Wednesday will likely be a down day with respect to thunderstorm threat as we will be in the wake of the departing short wave. Surface heating and may initiate some isolated showers/storms Wednesday, but coverage sub-par since forcing mechanism limited to just the heating of the day. Better opportunity for showers/storms is expected to occur Thursday associated with dynamic lift from another short wave trough...this trough moving quickly from west to east via modest zonal flow. Elevated PWATs of 1.25 to 1.75 are forecast the entire week, so showers/storms that do occur will be rain efficient. Surface dewpoints are also forecast to remain at or above 65 so it will remain muggy, temperatures ranging from the 60s at night to the 80s during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Expect a drying trend for Friday and Friday night as winds likely to remain northwesterly in the wake the passage of Thursday's short wave trough. Plenty of mid level drying progged as well, so shower/storm activity would be unfavorable. Can't rule out a rogue shower far west for any upstream activity which may cross the Ohio Valley, but think Friday as a whole for our forecast area will be dry. The drying is expected to be short-lived however as upper ridge builds in again by Saturday along with return of deeper moisture for the entire weekend. Thus chances of showers/storms increase Saturday and more so into Sunday. Near seasonal temperatures and increasing humidity as well through next weekend. Generally pretty good agreement in the guidance for these trends through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... The warm and humid air mass in place should spark showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening. Confidence is high enough to mention VCTS with TEMPO groups of TSRA and gusty winds at all TAF sites. MVFR conditions also will be likely in any of these storms. The showers and thunderstorms should eventually diminish by midnight. Although patchy MVFR conditions could be possible overnight where rain has fallen, cloud cover overhead may inhibit it to some extent. VFR conditions should resume for Tuesday morning, but showers and thunderstorms appear likely to fire again later in the afternoon as a wave of low pressure passed overhead. Coverage of this convection could become rather widespread with the potential for MVFR conditions, gusty winds, and turbulence at all TAF sites. Extended Aviation Discussion... A stationary front over the Mid Atlantic along with waves of low pressure tracking eastward along this boundary should keep an active weather trend through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop each afternoon and evening, which will produce areas of MVFR and heavy rainfall. MVFR or IFR conditions from fog or low clouds may also occur during the late night hours due to increasing moisture. By Friday, a cold front should shove the stalled boundary offshore, and drier air from high pressure will bring VFR conditions through Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PW