046 FXUS61 KAKQ 171050 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure anchored off the Southeast coast for most of the upcoming week. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the northwest today into Tuesday bringing a chance for showers and storms to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Monday... Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast and generally zonal flow aloft across the Mid Atlantic states. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s and low 70s with mostly clear skies noted. Southwesterly surface winds will continue to bring low level moisture northward today while a weak surface boundary slowly meanders north of the region. Strong heating and generally clear skies through the morning will allow instability to build into the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be quite warm today with low 90s expected for all areas except along the immediate coast and Eastern Shore where some upper 80s are possible. While a belt of enhanced westerly flow will generally stay north of the local area today, subtle perturbations in the flow aloft will allow showers and storms to develop this afternoon. The greater chance for storm organization will materialize across our northern tier of Virginia counties eastward to the MD Eastern Shore, closer to the enhanced winds aloft. Strong straight line winds and a few isolated instances of large hail are more likely in these areas. SPC has outlined a Slight Risk area across the far north with a Marginal Risk extending south to roughly the highway 460 corridor. Areas to the south of the Marginal Risk will be well removed from the stronger flow aloft and severe weather is correspondingly less likely in this region, though a few of the stronger thunderstorm cores this afternoon will be capable of generating briefly gusty winds and heavy rain. Rain chances will become relegated to the northern tier after sunset and should wane completely everywhere by midnight. Lows in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Tuesday will be much like Monday with the front inching closer the area. Slightly increased shower and storms chances are forecast Tuesday with the potential for a few strong storms across the region once again. SPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with strong gusty winds remaining the mostly likely severe hazard. Highs Tuesday will be modestly cooler than Monday due to greater chances for rain and increased cloud cover with upper 80s and low 90s forecast. Unsettled weather pattern continues for Wednesday with continued moist SW flow, strong daytime heating, and transient shortwave disturbances allowing for scattered showers and storms. Model guidance is trending toward a better defined system traversing the region Thursday with another shot at strong to severe storms. Highs each day in the upper 80s and low 90s with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... A shortwave will be moving off the coast Wednesday night with a few linger showers. Another trough will be deepening in the central MS River Valley and expected to move east into our area. This will bring a decent chance of showers/thunderstorms (50-60% along a weak cold front) later Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning as a sfc low tracks over PA and off the NJ coast. A ridge aloft will build over the western Great Lakes as the trough moves off the Mid Atlantic coast, putting the area in a NW flow aloft. This will dry us out over the weekend with slightly drier air at the sfc as well. There may be storms moving SE out of the mountains Sunday in the NW flow, mainly NE of I-64. Guidance have been increasing the temperatures for Thursday ahead of the cold front, highs will be near 90 to the low 90s. Behind the front, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Fri-Sun. Beaches will be cooler on Saturday with an onshore flow (highs ranging from upper 70s to low 80s). && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Generally expecting VFR flying weather this morning with an increasing chance for showers and storms by afternoon, especially across the northern tier from RIC to SBY. Scattered storms are possible area-wide this afternoon but only confident enough to include VCSH at SBY in the TAF at this time. SW winds generally at or below 10 knots today, except variable and gusty in and around thunderstorms. Outlook: SCT diurnal convection psbl thru most of the week. Greatest chcs will be north of a RIC-SBY line. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... High pressure is centered well off the Southeast coast early this morning. A SW wind of 10-15kt is occurring across the area, with 2-3ft seas S, 3-4ft seas N, and 1-2ft waves in the Bay. The wind will remain 10-15kt today and shift to S. Seas across the N will subside to 2-3ft. High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast tonight through Thursday, as a stationary boundary remains to the NW. At this time, sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail with a SW wind averaging 10-15kt, and seas/waves averaging 2- 3ft/1-2ft. There is an increasing chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms today through Thursday. There is also a potential for nocturnal wind shifts to N/NW (especially across the nrn portion of the marine area) in the wake of any organized convective systems, and then will return to SE, S, then SW. 17/00z numerical models bring a weak cold front through the region late Thursday night into early Friday resulting in a wind shift to NW, with sub-SCA conditions continuing. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...MPR/RHR MARINE...AJZ