295 FXUS64 KMOB 170500 AAC AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 06Z issuance...VFR CIGs and VISBYs expected overnight with light southerly winds. SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop again Monday afternoon. General VFR conditions are expected with drops to low end MVFR possible in the convection. Light southerly winds will start the day, then increase to around 10 knots. Higher gusts are possible with the convection. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 844 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. UPDATE...Have bumped PoPs up northwest of I-65. Convection has increased in a band of low level confluence over eastern Mississippi. Precipitation is still on track to be generally gone by midnight, with a northward trend of the band's location. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...General VFR conditions expected over the forecast area this evening, with local MVFR conditions in scattered showers/thunderstorms northwest of the I65 corridor. Coverage and intensity of the precipitation will decrease into the evening with the loss of the days heating, and should be gone over the area by midnight. Movement of any storms is expected to be northerly, with deep layer southerly winds around 5 knots over the area. Winds are expected to become a light southerly after midnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon, with initiation along a seabreeze expected to develop and move inland. A light southerly wind at sunrise Monday will become a general 5 to 10 kts, with local gusts to 15 knots possible along the seabreeze front. Gusts to 25 knots are possible in the afternoon near the stronger thunderstorms. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A weak mid-level trough extending from eastern Oklahoma southeast into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico shifts east into the lower Mississippi River Valley overnight tonight before passing over the local area on Monday. Additional energy associated with this upper feature would traditionally support a greater thunderstorm coverage and thus higher PoPs across our area. However, guidance is in good agreement rotating a swath of drier air (PWATs < 1.5 inches) around the periphery of the eastern Gulf surface ridge and into the local area right as the upper wave passes through. This should keep thunderstorm coverage more isolated to scattered, particularly over the central portion of our forecast area, as updrafts will struggle with entrainment issues. Maintained higher PoPs (50-60%) along our eastern and western fringes, coincident with better deep-layer moisture and therefore a more favorable convective environment. No severe weather is expected, but any stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds in addition to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours. Lows tonight range from the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday reach the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to around 90 along the coast. /49 SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...An active afternoon/evening convective pattern continues through the short term. A moist low-level onshore flow continues courtesy of surface high pressure ridging into the northern Gulf region from the Western Atlantic. PWATS remain elevated even for this time of year ranging between 1.8 to 2.0 inches range. Aloft minor shortwave troughs moving through the southwest to westerly flow interact with afternoon instability, a moist atmosphere, and low level forcing along the sea breeze front as well as outflow boundaries to initiate afternoon convection. Once initiated convection will likely linger into the evening hours before gradually storms will gradually subsiding. The convective regime developing each afternoon will be one consisting of high instability within a weakly sheared environment which will favor the development of short lived pulse thunderstorms. The stronger of these pulse thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail and potentially, locally damaging wind gusts. Temperatures will trend near to a little above seasonable norms with daytime highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will generally range in the low to mid 70s with some sites only falling into the upper 70s to near 80 along the Gulf coast. /08 LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Models continue to project a stronger shortwave trough approaching the region on Thursday supported by the subtropical jet aloft. Surface low pressure is projected to pass to the north of the region increasing the low level gradient at this time as well. Vertical bulk wind shear increases from less than 20 knots to 20 to 40 knots Thursday afternoon. ML Capes as high as 4900 J/kg are projected over the region with PWATs of around 2.0 inches. Greater storm coverage and stronger storms look increasingly likely Thursday. The shear profile remains unidirectional, and should the pattern evolve as currently projected, the development of multi cellular thunderstorm structures are possible and could potentially produce nickel to quarter size hail and damaging straight line wind gusts. The development of afternoon convection over the area is expected to gradually wane Friday into the weekend as the upper level ridge rebounds and builds over the north central Gulf region. Daytime highs Wednesday through Sunday are expected to trend near to slightly warmer than climatological norms. Overnight lows should trend well above normal. /08 MARINE...High pressure east of the marine area will maintain a light onshore flow and 1 to 2 foot seas early in the week. Moderate to strong southwest flow and seas building to around 3 to 5 feet then expected mid to late week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each day through the period, with greater coverage expected mid to late in the week. /49 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob