018 FXUS62 KTAE 162352 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 752 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .UPDATE... Late afternoon pops have been adjusted slightly higher to account for the East Coast sea breeze that is pushing its way west across our eastern counties. Shower and thunderstorm activity should be quick to subside as the line continues westward. PoPs will remain low across our western areas through the rest of the night. && .PREV DISCUSSION [743 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Isolated to scattered convection will generally be focused along the sea breeze across the southeast big bend, perhaps extending into south-central Georgia this evening before diminishing after sunset. With relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE, an isolated stronger storm or two is possible. Overnight lows will generally range from the low to mid 70s across the area. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... A series of shortwaves will move aloft of the southeast through Tuesday night, enhancing divergence aloft. Meanwhile, the low level ridge will shift southeastward slightly, bringing a steady return flow of moisture to the area. PW values will climb back to 1.5"-2" Monday afternoon and remain elevated on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area both afternoons. Can't rule out the potential for an isolated storm or two either day. Temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The active pattern aloft will continue with daily thunderstorms across the area through the work week. As we head into the weekend however, deep layer ridging will build over the region and the active pattern will settle down. Temperatures will remain near normal through the week. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Tuesday] The TLH terminal may experience a TSTM this evening with a brief period of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF cycle at all but the VLD terminal. VLD should see a period of MVFR vsbys and cigs in the predawn hours due to patchy fog and stratus. Winds will be light. .MARINE... Light winds and low seas are forecast through Wednesday. After that, cautionary conditions will be possible through the remainder of the week. .FIRE WEATHER... High relative humidity coupled with increasing rain chances this week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. .HYDROLOGY... A more active pattern is forecast this week, but widespread rainfall accumulations are expected to remain low- around one to two inches. Localized flooding will be possible in areas that see slower moving storms with higher rainfall rates, but no widespread flooding issues are anticipated. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 89 72 91 73 / 40 40 20 50 20 Panama City 75 87 75 86 77 / 30 40 10 30 30 Dothan 72 91 72 90 73 / 20 50 20 50 20 Albany 73 92 72 91 73 / 40 40 20 50 30 Valdosta 72 91 72 90 73 / 50 60 20 50 20 Cross City 72 88 71 87 74 / 50 60 30 40 20 Apalachicola 76 85 74 86 76 / 30 30 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DiCatarina NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Nguyen LONG TERM...Nguyen AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Nguyen FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina HYDROLOGY...Nguyen