168 FXUS63 KIND 162036 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 436 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper waves combined with a couple of meandering fronts will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana into next weekend. The wet pattern will keep temperatures near normal to below normal through the period. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 This afternoon a cold front was across northern Indiana, but a boundary with a temperature gradient was across southern Indiana. Temperatures south of the boundary were in the mid and upper 80s, with upper 70s to around 80 north of this boundary. Scattered thunderstorms were across southern sections of central Indiana. Some upper energy will interact with the boundary and the approaching cold front from the north to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Expect the greatest coverage to be in the south closer to the better instability. Will go likely PoPs there with chance PoPs elsewhere. Given the good instability south with the presence of a boundary, strong to severe storms are possible mainly south into the evening. Overnight the upper wave will exit to the east, diminishing the forcing across the area. Will allow PoPs to drop back to slight chance category all areas by 12Z with this lull in forcing. Precipitable water values remain over 1.5 inches across the southern half of the area, so locally heavy rain and flooding remain a threat. However, given the expected coverage and duration of the thunderstorms tonight, feel that the threat won't be widespread enough for a flood watch. Will continue to highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and social media products. Trended toward a model blend for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Models are close enough that the NBM initialization was accepted for most items. The short term will continue the pattern of upper waves interacting with surface boundaries to produce showers and thunderstorms at times. Monday morning should see lower coverage of rain, but as another upper wave moves into the area more numerous showers and storms will develop in the afternoon and then continue into the evening. Again the highest coverage should be across the south closer to the better instability. Only scattered coverage of convection is then expected across the area Monday night into Tuesday night with no strong upper waves to interact with the boundary. A stronger wave will move in for Wednesday though, bringing widespread showers and storms during the afternoon. Will go with high PoPs then. Locally heavy rain and flooding will remain a threat throughout the short term given the moisture laden airmass. Another flood watch may be needed in the future when better confidence in timing and coverage of storms is present. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 The active pattern again looks to continue well into the long term portion of the forecast, which could begin to cause serious problems water wise given the widespread 2 to 5 inches already experienced across central Indiana. This threat will continue to merit close scrutiny as the week wears on. There may be a bit of a break in the action late Thursday night into early Friday, but unfortunately at this point that is the only time without a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures during the period will climb back closer to normal as ridging begins to build to the east and widespread southwest flow is in place across the area. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 162100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 432 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Potential for scattered convection to develop in the vicinity of the KIND terminal expected to increase over the next couple of hours, as a mid level vorticity center, currently over Illinois, moves east and interacts with a very unstable air mass. Appears this potential may last well into the evening hours. Previous discussion follows. MVFR ceilings may improve for a while this evening and overnight before deteriorating again near daybreak. A brief period of IFR cannot be ruled out. Some light fog will also be possible at mainly the outlying sites, but visibilities should remain MVFR. Winds will be 10KT or less through the period, generally out of the southwest early, becoming more northwesterly and then variable with time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...JAS