687 FXUS66 KOTX 152350 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Continued warm conditions with a daily chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms across the northern mountains are expected through Monday. A cold front Tuesday will bring a return of dry breezy winds. The weather Wednesday through next weekend will likely be cool with showers mainly over the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: Another mild night is on tap for the Inland Northwest. Widely scattered weak showers across our northern counties will bring a slim chance of brief light rain to places like Republic, Colville, Loon Lake, Sandpoint, and Bonners Ferry. The instability associated with this spotty activity is shallow and quite high. With cloud bases in the 8000 to 10000 ft range, some of the returns picked up by radar may be virga with little rain reaching the ground. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in most areas with a few spots like Wenatchee, Grand Coulee, and Lewiston bottoming out around 60. Sunday and Monday: Temperatures will be quite warm Sun and Mon with a flat high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific extending into the Western US. Sunday afternoon, temperatures in the 80s combined with rising surface dewpoints will increase our chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain of the northern Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington the the Idaho Panhandle. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF forecast a weak shortwave Sunday evening into Monday morning that will have the potential to perpetuate showers through the night across north central Washington into the north Idaho Panhandle. Redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon looks to be mainly limited to the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle, but may clip Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. /GKoch Monday night through Saturday...The overall weather trend for the coming week is fairly high confidence in the aggregate with all models coming into agreement for the last few runs in depicting a breezy and largely dry cool down from mid-week and beyond with increasing chances of at least mountain showers and a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms by the end of the week. The Pacific satellite loop depicts a sprawling upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon. As the week wears on this upper low will drift into western Canada and then sag southward into the northern US bringing with it a cooler air mass. The transition will begin on Tuesday with an initial cold front passage in a fast zonal flow aloft as the migrating upper low flattens any ridging over the region. this initial front will be rather weak with Tuesday's temperatures still above average...but with noticeable breeziness and dry conditions especially in the deep basin where downslope off the Cascades will dessicate the air mass for a potentially critical fire weather period Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday night or early Wednesday a stronger cold front will descend out of the northwest and through the forecast area and this day will bring the noticeable cool down from the mid 80s on Tuesday to the mid 70s or so on Wednesday. More wind is expected with this second front on Wednesday afternoon and evening and while this will also be a largely dry cold front...there will be a chance of showers or a stray thunderstorm over the northern mountains. For Thursday and onward into the weekend the upper low will assert its presence as much cooler conditions...below average temperatures with highs only in the lower to mid 70s for most locations...and depending on overnight winds and sky conditions...still uncertain with significant differences in model details this far out...the possibility of near freezing temperatures in some sheltered northern valleys Thursday through Saturday morning. Some of the models bring what is left of the upper low directly over the forecast area which would imply a potential for spring-like scattered showers and low top thunderstorms Friday and Saturday...while others simply side swipe the forecast area suggesting a smaller chance of showers but more wind and still continued cool temperatures. At least mountain oriented showers and a few mountains thunderstorms leading into the weekend are a decent bet regardless of which model turns out correct. /Fugazzi && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: All TAF sites are expected to remain dry with VFR conditions through 00z Monday. Clouds associated with weak convection over the northern mountains will drop south over KGEG/KSFF/KCOE early this evening but bases are high around 7k-10k feet. Greater instability on Sunday will result in a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the northern mountains in the afternoon. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 85 56 85 59 84 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 54 83 55 83 58 82 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 Pullman 52 81 54 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 89 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 88 50 89 49 92 / 20 20 20 10 10 0 Sandpoint 53 82 55 80 56 82 / 20 10 20 20 10 0 Kellogg 58 79 59 79 60 77 / 10 10 20 10 10 0 Moses Lake 57 92 58 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 89 61 89 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 59 89 58 91 59 87 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$