305 FXUS61 KBGM 151836 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 236 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will usher another round of showers into NY and PA tonight and Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible from the Twin Tiers southward Sunday afternoon as unstable air works into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM update... A frontal system moving through the Great Lakes toward NY and PA will bring thickening clouds and an increase in showers this evening and overnight. PWAT values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches are fairly typical of stormy patterns during the summer, and without a threat for thunderstorms, hydro concerns are not forecast. Showers will continue Sunday. A small amount of instability could potentially develop over the far southern forecast area on Sunday afternoon and cause isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures in the lower-70s are forecast. High pressure will briefly build southward Sunday night and bring an end to the rain north of the Southern Tier. A few showers will continue from the Southern Tier southward into PA. Temperatures will fall into the 50s. 1045 AM update... A strong June sun has pushed temperatures into the middle-70s over portions of the Finger Lakes and toward Syracuse. We increased afternoon temperatures over this region to compensate. Model timing continues to point toward showers moving into the northwestern forecast area between 20z and 22z. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 210 AM UPDATE... High pressure tries to build in from Ontario and push the front to the south. Models now show a fairly dry scenario over much of the NY forecast area Sunday night into Monday, so have lowered the pops a it for this period, Front pushes back to the north Monday night increasing the chance for showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. Little change in the temperature forecast for the period so little change needed there. Previous discussion continues below. A stalled front over PA will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to NY and PA as a series of waves move through the region. The best chance for precipitation will come Monday and Monday night when a diffuse surface feature rotates out of the Great Lakes and across Upstate NY. Temperatures will reach the 70s by day and fall back into the 50s at night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 210 AM UPDATE... Key to the long term is the position of the pesky frontal boundary south of the forecast area. With the front parallel to the flow, it is difficult to place. In any event, have followed the latest guidance as to the position and adjusted the pops accordingly. Very little change to the temperatures in the period so no real adjustments needed there. Previous discussion continues below. 3PM UPDATE... The frontal boundary remains stalled out across PA, with weak waves passing through helping to keep at least a slight chance for showers over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. For Thursday, models indicate a low pressure system developing in the Ohio River Valley. This tracks towards New England Thursday afternoon and evening, perhaps bringing in better chances for showers and even a few rumbles of thunder. A cold front will slide through overnight into Friday morning, then a ridge of high pressure begins to build in for Friday. A chance for showers will continue mainly across our eastern zones throughout the day Friday behind the exiting system. Temperatures do not look to vary much throughout the extended, with lows in the mid/upper 50s and highs generally in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions this afternoon will quickly degrade to MVFR when a frontal system spreads showers across the terminals this evening. IFR ceilings are likely to develop early Sunday morning as relative humidities thicken in the lower atmosphere. An isolated thunderstorm is possible Sunday afternoon near KAVP. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...Restrictions with occasional showers. A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out at some point. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DGM/DJP LONG TERM...DGM/HLC AVIATION...DJP