700 FXUS64 KSHV 150135 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 835 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .UPDATE.../through tomorrow afternoon/ The 00Z SHV sounding reveals the return of southerly flow is gradually increasing moisture levels in the atmospheric column; the current precipitable water value of 1.3 inches is up a quarter of inch in the past 12 hours and up half an inch in the past 24 hours. Although there still is not enough moisture to yet result in rain in the Four State Region, by tomorrow afternoon the strengthening low level southerly moisture advection should be sufficient for a 15 to 25 percent coverage of showers and storms (but mainly south of I-20). Before then, anticipate a warmer and muggier night than has been the case lately with lows near to slightly above normal for mid June. Expect a broken deck of low clouds to increase from the south late tonight and yield partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with afternoon readings in the 90 to 93 degree range and peak heat index values unfortunately around the century mark. /BB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/ AVIATION... VFR conditions are prevailing across the region this evening, but expect MVFR flight cats (due to ceilings) to build in from the south between 5 and 8 am tomorrow morning with a return to VFR flight cats between 10 and 11 am tomorrow. South surface winds will stay up between 5 and 15 mph tonight and then pick up to a range of 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, by 9 to 10 am tomorrow. Scattered cumulus clouds ranging in height from 25 to 50 kft are expected through the day tomorrow with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, but mainly south of I-20. Chances of rain at any particular TAF site through the next 24 hours were too low to include mention of in this package. /50/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/ The atmosphere will continue to moisten as the surface low to our west and the surface high to our east maintains a steady supply of Gulf moisture into the area. The pressure gradient will tighten between the two, especially for areas in Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas, during the morning hours tomorrow and lasting through late afternoon. A weak sea breeze will push north across our southern zones during the afternoon hours and will bring a slight chance of rainfall with it. By the end of the forecast period, the upper level disturbance that will bring the next significant chance of rain in the long term will be poised to enter the Four State Region from the west. Upper 60s to lower 70s will be the low temperatures tonight but have increased the maximum and minimum temperatures up for Saturday to just slightly above normal as models have been trending that way. /35/ LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/ Upper level flow transitions to the southwest Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave trough moves east across North Texas into Ern OK/NW AR during the day on Sunday. With the aid of diurnal heating, low level moisture advection from southerly winds, and additional moisture aloft in the flow, scattered convection should develop across the region. Another trough will move into Ern OK/E TX by daybreak Monday, with an increasing SWrly LLJ resulting in an uptick in convection across the region during the day. Strong forcing ahead of the trough and unidirectional flow could result training convection which could pose a risk for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. Behind Monday's trough, NW Flow aloft will develop across the region Tuesday. POPs will linger in the forecast as weak disturbances move across the region. Additional shortwave troughs will move across the region Wednesday and again Wednesday night, which will keep a chance of sct convection in the forecast. An unsettled weather pattern will linger into Thursday before flat ridging aloft builds NE from old MX across S TX and the lower MS Valley by Friday, which should finally end rain chances across the region going into next weekend. Temps near to slightly below normal through the extended with rain and cloud cover expected across the region. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 93 75 89 / 0 20 10 40 MLU 70 93 74 91 / 0 20 10 40 DEQ 70 90 73 85 / 0 10 20 50 TXK 70 90 74 87 / 0 10 10 50 ELD 69 92 73 89 / 0 10 10 50 TYR 72 92 76 90 / 0 10 10 50 GGG 71 92 75 90 / 0 10 10 50 LFK 72 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 50/35/20